NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 221155
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
555 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Blustery with light snow and flurries through this afternoon.
  Snow accumulations less than an inch, except over northern Vilas
  County where a few inches of fluffy snow could accumulate.

- Next chance for snow is late Monday night through Tuesday
  afternoon. 60-70% chance of 2+ inches north of highway 29. More
  opportunities for snow Wednesday night into Thursday and again
  by this weekend.

- Staying colder through Monday with highs in the 20s. Warmest day
  this week will be Friday (>75% chance of highs 40+ degrees), but
  turning colder again next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Blustery with light snow and flurries today...
Low pressure over lower Michigan extends a trough to the
northwest. There is also a shortwave dropping across Upper
Michigan as seen in mid-level WV loop. Though the forcing with
these features is hardly robust, it is interacting on widespread
moisture in the DGZ. Net result is light snow and flurries. Weaker
forcing and limited moisture leads to less than 1" of snow for most
locations, though lake effect added to the setup will boost snowfall
to a few inches in northern Vilas. Once wave drops though, subsidence
behind it will probably diminish coverage of snow for especially
central to far northeast WI. Lingering lake effect this evening,
but otherwise snow should end. It still looks blustery today, with
gusts to 30 mph, peaking in the afternoon.

More snow on the way late Monday night through Tuesday...
NBM pops continue trend upward (60-80%) as clipper low pressure
system tracking across Upper Great Lakes brings snow late Monday
night into Tuesday. Agreement is high that greatest chances for
snow occur Tuesday morning through mid Tuesday afternoon. There
are still differences in where bulk of heavier isentropic ascent
snow occurs through 18z Tue, but even with this NBM probabilities
are now showing 60-70% chance of 2+ inches north of highway 29 by
time snow ends Tuesday evening, with even a 40-50% of seeing 4+
inches near the Upper Michigan border. Seems there is at least a
small chance this event could need a winter weather headline.

More opportunities for snow Wednesday night into Thursday and
again by next weekend...
Active pattern continues as another system brings snow to western
Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. Trend from this system
is farther south, with southern areas well to south of highway 29
seeing 30-40% chance of at least 1" of snow. ECMWF ensemble
brings that chance farther north though. Yet another chance of
snow could occur to start the weekend though chances are quite low
at this point (<10% of 1+ inches).

Temperatures...
Overall we'll be on the cooler side of average for most of the
week. Highs in the 20s today and Monday, along with chilly lows in
the single digits to teens tonight and Monday night. A few spots
north-central may slip below zero tonight if skies clear out.
Highs will be average to a bit below average for Tuesday-Thursday.
Consistent signal of brief warming on Friday as WI will be within
warmer air south of cyclone crossing central Canada. Probabilities
of seeing highs 40+ degrees on Friday remain high at 75-95%. It
doesn't last, as temperatures next weekend turn cool again, with
current forecast showing highs for the first day of March (next
Sunday) in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 554 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Cigs will vary between 015 and 025 into early this evening, though
lingering VFR cigs will occur over eastern WI through mid morning.
Light snow and flurries (mainly VFR) are expected through the day
with vsby reduction at times (2-5sm). The most persistent lower
vsby will be over north-central WI, to the north of RHI, due to
lake effect snow. Tonight, MVFR cigs and a few flurries will
linger far north-central (RHI) and near Lake Michigan (MTW). Skies
will partially clear out elsewhere.

Northwest winds gust 15-25 kts at the terminals through the period,
strongest this afternoon.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......JLA