NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 250416
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1116 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will moderate mid-week, briefly cool off late in
  the work week, then moderate over the weekend and early next
  week.

- Some rivers will remain above bankfull this week.

- Best chances of precipitation occur Thursday (mainly rain) and
  Monday night into Tuesday (rain with a wintry mix over northern
  WI).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

A shallow stationary front extended across northern WI this
afternoon, but was not generating any precipitation due to weak
forcing and a dry air mass (dew points in the lower to middle 20s).
Mid and high level clouds covered the region as temperatures
gradually warmed into the 40s and lower 50s.

A front is expected to lift north into Upper Michigan tonight,
before sagging back into northern WI Wednesday night. Models keep
most of the precipitation north of the forecast area during this
time frame, and given that our more recent events have
underperformed with precipitation, would tend to agree with the
dry approach.

Low pressure approaching from the Northern Plains will track east
along the cold front as the boundary surges south across the
Great Lakes region late Wednesday night into Thursday. The best
forcing with this system occurs over northern WI from 12z-18z
Thursday, in association with a band of strong mid-level FGEN.
The GFS is very aggressive with QPF, bringing a quarter to half
inch north of Hwy 29. It is also colder, and brings a stripe of
snow across northern WI. However, this appears to be an outlier,
as probabilistic forecasts support much lower QPF amounts and
mainly rain, with only a 10% chance of a glaze of ice and 10-30%
chance of measurable snow over far northern WI. Will focus on
mainly rain and QPF amounts of a tenth of an inch or less over
most of the forecast area with this system.

A large area of high pressure will build into the region Friday
night then sink southeast towards the middle Atlantic states late
in the weekend. This high will provide a period of dry weather,
which should persist into Monday or Monday night.

The dry pattern comes to an end by Tuesday, with a prolonged
period of precipitation lasting through mid-week, and including
potential for heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and perhaps even snow
or ice accumulations. Hopefully the models are just trying to pull
an April Fool's Day joke on us.

Temperatures will warm up nicely on Wednesday as the front lifts
north into Upper Michigan. Expecting highs in the 50s to middle
60s (far southwest), except lower to middle 40s near lake
Michigan. After a mild start on Thursday, the cold frontal passage
will bring much cooler readings to the region Thursday night into
Friday. A moderating trend returns over the weekend and into early
next week, with temperatures rising well above normal Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Good flying conditions expected for the TAF period, with high
clouds spreading across the area through the overnight period.
Winds will be on the increase again tomorrow, with gusts up to 15
knots at times out of the south.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Several rivers will remain above bankfull this week as the snow
continues to gradually melt and make it into the rivers. Despite
high water levels in some areas, no significant flooding is
anticipated at this time.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Uhlmann
HYDROLOGY......Kieckbusch