NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 232330
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
630 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some rivers will remain above bankfull for the next couple days,
  with minor flooding possible at a few locations.

- Temperatures will moderate the next few days, rising to above
  normal again from Tuesday to Thursday.

- A wintry mix of precipitation is possible across northern WI
  during the middle of of the work week, especially Wednesday
  night into Thursday.

- Pleasant weekend expected, with dry conditions and mild
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

High pressure caused clouds to shift east and erode, leaving
plenty of sunshine this afternoon. Despite the sun, temperatures
had only slowly warmed into the 30s and lower 40s by 2 pm.

As the high slides off to the east tonight, warm air advection
will increase on the nose of a 35 to 40 knot low-level jet. Have
increased pops to 30-40% across far northern and northeast WI later
tonight into early Tuesday, as forcing is fairly strong and occurs
within the dendritic growth zone. Also went with slight chance
pops or flurries farther south. Could see a dusting to a half inch
near the Upper Michigan border, along with locally slippery spots
on roads. Although the snow should be east of the area by around
15z/Tuesday, mid-level clouds should linger for much of the day
and limit heating. As a result, have lowered temperatures
slightly, with highs ranging from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

A cold front will become stationary across either Upper Michigan
or northern WI Tuesday night into Wednesday night, with only a
10-20% chance of a wintry mix near the WI/MI border. Low pressure
approaching from the Northern Plains will drag the cold front
across the region late Wednesday night into Thursday, leading to a
better chance of widespread precipitation. Most of this should
fall as rain, though northern WI could see a wintry mix on
Thursday. Depending on the location of the front, northern WI
could stay on the cool side with temperatures, but locations in
central and east central WI should see highs in the 50s and lower
60s Wednesday into Thursday.

A large area of high pressure will then build into the region
Friday night then sink southeast towards the middle Atlantic
states late in the weekend. This high will provide a period of dry
weather, which should persist into Monday. After a cool day on
Friday, moderating temperatures are anticipated over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 509 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Mostly clear skies prevailed across the forecast area this
evening. VFR conditions will then persist throughout the duration
of the forecast as high pressure settles in over the Great Lakes.
A brief window for light snow may make it down to RHI overnight,
though this will be falling from a 4 to 5k ft deck. LLWS concerns
arise early in the TAF period as an 850 mb LLJ skims northern
Wisconsin, progressing from northwest to southeast through late
Tuesday morning. Surface winds will be predominantly out of the
south/southwest, starting light and then gusting between 15 and 20
knots late Tuesday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Several rivers have recently risen above action stage, with the
Yellow River at Babcock in minor flood stage (Flood Warning in
effect) and portions of the Wisconsin, Menominee and East rivers
above bankfull. Forecasts indicate the Wolf River should reach
bankfull this afternoon or evening. Despite high water levels in
some areas, no significant flooding is anticipated at this time.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Goodin
HYDROLOGY......Kieckbusch