NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 310600
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
100 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather prevails through the middle of next week.

- Temperatures around 80 through early next week, rising into the
  80s by the middle to late part of the week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions into next week due to low
  relative humidity and above normal temperatures. Near-critical
  conditions may develop mid to late part of next week when winds
  increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Precipitation Chances...A strong ridge of high pressure is
expected to dominate the weather pattern through at least the
middle of next week, keeping conditions dry. The only minor
intrusion that some guidance is hinting at is a subtle shift of
the persistent stationary moisture to the southwest of the region
moving into the southwest portion of the forecast area Sunday
night into Monday. If this occurs, a few light rain showers or
sprinkles may occur across central Wisconsin; however, dry air
from the prevailing high pressure should keep conditions dry.

By Wednesday night, the upper-level ridge will flatten and the
high pressure will slide eastward as a shortwave trough approaches
from the northern Plains. Beginning Thursday, the pattern becomes
unsettled with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
through next weekend. Since there are still some timing issues, it
is too early to determine any severe potential at this time.

Temperatures...High temperatures are expected to be a few degrees
above normal through Tuesday with highs around 80 away from the
lakeshore. Temperatures will then increase to about 10 degrees
above normal by Wednesday as highs increase into the 80s across
the region, which is expected to last into next weekend.

The threat of high temperatures of 90 or greater will be small
(less than 20%) through the middle of the week. This is expected
to increase to 20 to 40% by late next week into the weekend
across central Wisconsin, the Fox Valley, and far northeast
Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high clouds
continue to filter over the region. Winds will remain light and
variable tonight, then become southeast-south on Sunday mainly under
7 kts. A lake breeze is likely to develop Sunday afternoon which
would turn winds easterly along and near the Lake Michigan shoreline
(MTW) with gusts of up to 15kts as the lake boundary pushes inland.

There is a low-end (10%) for scattered showers across western WI
west of an EAU to MSN line, early Monday morning, that could shift
east into parts of central WI, however, any aviation impacts should
be minimal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Until a widespread wetting rain occurs, elevated fire weather
conditions will continue through much of next week as afternoon
RHs will routinely drop to 20 to 30% or lower with temperatures
in the 70s/80s. Despite green up progressing and/or completing,
fuel input from fire partners points to concern where recent
dryness persists, any days with increasing winds could allow the
fire weather potential to rise to near-critical. The best
potential could be the middle to late part of next week as the
lower RH values could coincide with increasing gradient winds as
the prevailing high pressure exits east and a shortwave/trough
approaches from the northern Plains.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......GK
FIRE WEATHER...Kurimski