NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 230512
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1112 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated snow showers this evening may cause brief drops in
  visibility along with isolated slick spots on area roads.

- Extreme Cold Warning is in effect tonight through Saturday
  morning. Wind chills of 35 to 45 below zero are expected across
  the region tonight. Wind chills around 30 to 40 below zero are
  expected Friday night into Saturday morning.

- The coldest of the air departs Saturday, but temperatures remain
  below normal into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Light snow showers today...
The front end of the cold air advection is accompanied by a
shortwave that will continue to bring sporadic light snow and
flurries into the region during the afternoon. Although the best
moisture remains above the DGZ, some lower visibilities and light
accumulations have prompted a slight increase in some snow totals,
with portions of the area maybe getting closer to half an inch and
a few spots getting as high as an inch. Expect sporadic impacts
on visibility, occasionally dropping as low as a mile or two. The
cold air advection is also accompanied by some strong wind gusts
up to 25 to 30 mph (50% chance at any given time) that will help
drive the colder wind chills expected during the overnight period.

Extreme cold Tonight through Saturday morning...

Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills remain a high
confidence forecast for the overnight period, with widespread
readings expected (90%+) of dropping to 35 below or colder
overnight tonight almost everywhere. Portions of the coldest areas
may drop as low as 45 to even 50 below for a brief period early
Friday morning. An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect for this
period.

For Friday through Saturday morning, the cold remains in the
region as the arctic airmass remains overhead. Air temperatures
will be quite cold, with highs staying around 7 to 13 below during
the day. Overnight temperatures Friday night will even be a couple
degrees colder than the night prior. In contrast however, as the
center of the arctic low tracks over the region, the winds will
drop off so many of the wind chill readings won't get quite as low
as tonight, staying around 25 to 35 below near the eastern areas,
and lingering around 35 to 40 below in central Wisconsin. Given
that this would hit wind chill criteria again and with
probabilistic guidance staying around 70% of 35 below, decided to
extend the Extreme Cold Warning through Friday into Saturday
morning despite being slightly 'warmer' for a period during the
day Friday. Finally, the end time of the headlines will be a
little up in the air as wind chills will be dependent on even
just a knot or two of wind Saturday morning and the timing of
cloud cover arriving from the southwest. Wouldn't be surprised if
a few locations end up with a Cold Weather Advisory earlier than
the current warning end time if cloud cover moves in early or
winds drop off completely overnight.

Beyond Saturday, temps and wind chills look to stay away from
headline criteria, but still remain well below normal for late
January. Wind chills will struggle to get about zero into early
next week.

In addition to the cold eastern WI may see some light snow on
Sunday as winds become easterly on the periphery a powerful
winter storm forecast to track from the southern Plains to the
mid-Atlantic. NBM probs are still pretty mutes with 10-20%
chances for greater than 1" of snow east of I-41 and up into Door
Co.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1112 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Isolated snow showers were moving southeast across the region late
this evening, producing brief MVFR cigs/vsbys. Anticipate these
snow showers to come to an end by 09z Fri. Some clearing looks to
still occur mainly for the east-central WI TAF sites. Less certain
on the clearing at the central WI TAF sites due to northwest flow
keeping lake-enhanced clouds moving over much of northern WI,
however, conditions should remain VFR. Additional clouds look to
develop during Friday afternoon, but again, remaining with VFR
conditions.

West to northwest winds are expected for this TAF period, with
gusts of 20-25 kts. Winds will subside Friday evening.

For ground operations, dangerously cold temperatures and wind
chills are expected tonight through Saturday morning. Wind chills
of 25 to 45 degrees below zero are expected Friday and Saturday
mornings.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ005-010>012-
018-019-030-035-036.

Extreme Cold Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ013-020>022-
031-037>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Kruk