NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 080843
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
243 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Greatest potential for impactful wintry precipitation will be later
  Monday and Monday night across northern Wisconsin with 20 to
  30% chances for a glazing of ice/light wintry mix.

- Temperatures begin to moderate today with above average
  temperatures favored over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Today-Tuesday:

Despite the widespread radar returns, surface observations indicated
snow only reaching the ground within a narrow NW/SE oriented band of
higher returns early this morning. Any snow will quickly exit early
today. As low-level winds shift southeast behind the surface high, a
few snow showers/flurries may occur along Lake Michigan today, but
impacts look negligible.

As the flow aloft becomes more zonal, a series of shortwave troughs
will progress eastward along the US-Canadian border tonight through
Tuesday. The weaker of the waves moves through tonight. With
the broader synoptic lift only brushing northern Wisconsin, low-
level warm advection will be the primary source of lift with
HREF soundings showing fairly dry mid-levels, so precip chances
are quite low (<25%). The moisture profiles and strengthening
warm nose suggest light snow or a wintry mix should any precip
occur.

A stronger wave will move through the Upper Great Lakes region
Monday night into Tuesday. There is a more coherent signal for
light precip with this wave, especially across northern
Wisconsin. Interquartile (25th-75th) ranges for the 850 mb warm
nose from global ensembles range from 1 to 4C with surface temps
likely within a few degrees of freezing. As a result, a wintry
mix of light rain/freezing rain/sleet snow is on the table, with
a transition to snow in the evening as the warm nose collapses.
NBM/EPS ensembles suggest at least low (10-30%) chances for a
glazing of freezing rain over northern Wisconsin with any snow
likely under an inch. This is a situation where any precip will
be light, but travel may become slick on untreated roads with
even a small amount of freezing rain.

Temps will rebound through early in the week with highs recovering
back into the 30s for much of the area.


Wednesday-Saturday:

High pressure over the Great Lakes will lead to a dry mid-week
period. Another Pacific shortwave trough is forecast to cross the
northern plains towards the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley by
Thursday/Friday. Overall, NBM and EPS/GEFS/CMCE ensembles suggest
only 20-40% probabilities for light snow with this system at this
time with limited impacts. The progressive zonal pattern will help
keep temps above average through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 949 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Overcast clouds with bases between 5000-10000 ft blanket the
region this evening. Cloud bases are lowering over central WI which
is an area to watch for snow to reach the surface later this
evening.

Confidence remains low that light snow will impact the TAF sites
tonight. Central WI stands to see the highest chance of snow
(30-50%), so will monitor for vsby reductions if light snow
develops.

Winds in the lowest 1 km will veer southeast between 08z-11z. This
onshore flow is expected to pull MVFR ceilings into east-central
Wisconsin, impacting KGRB, KATW, and KMTW. Light snow or flurries
are most likely at KMTW, where a prevailing mention was maintained.

For central and north-central Wisconsin (KAUW, KCWA, KRHI), dry
air will likely delay ceiling drops until midday Sunday. Then MVFR
ceilings are expected to linger through the end of the period.
Confidence is medium on the exact timing of MVFR stratus arrival
late tonight over east-central WI and midday over central WI.

Outlook...MVFR ceilings look possible to impact terminals over
central, north-central, and far northeast WI late Sunday night
into Monday.

&&


.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...MPC