NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 030805
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
205 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next chance for widespread light snow/wintry precip arrives
  Thursday morning, lasting through Friday morning. Greatest
  chances for 1 inch of snow are across northern Vilas and along
  the Door Peninsula.

- Temperatures to be above normal throughout the week, with
  central Wisconsin seeing a chance at above freezing highs on
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

High pressure influence to our north continues to be prevalent
early this morning, with only a lake effect stratus deck parked
over the northern half of the forecast area. Combination of high
pressure under weak ridging then continues to result in dry
conditions and near normal temperatures through at least
Wednesday.

Precip chances... Synoptic pattern begins to re-amplify toward
the end of the week as low pressure deepens over the Hudson Bay,
bringing our next chances for light snow or a wintry mix. Trends
seem to be holding steady as most ensembles take the track of the
clipper further north, though the brief dry spell is still likely
to come to an end for most. First round of isentropically-forced
precip looks to develop along the leading edge of a swath of WAA
Thursday morning, bringing a short-lived round of light snow
area-wide. Potential exists for light rain to mix in with snow at
times across central Wisconsin where surface temperatures will
read at/near freezing, though suspect snow will be the dominant
p-type due to the shallow nature of the warmer near-surface layer.
Cold FROPA then occurs Friday morning, bringing with it a second
round of snow mainly to the lake effect belts. LREF grand
ensemble continues to show the greatest chance for 1 inch of snow
(30 to 50%) over northern Vilas and along the Door Peninsula as
winds veer to northwesterly. Could see a scenario in which some
freezing drizzle mixes in Friday morning due to a shallow
supercooled moist layer, though this will depend on efficiency of
ice production. For the time being, have limited NBM ZR wx type to
ZL. Winds also ramp up on Friday as the pressure gradient
tightens up along the front, with surface gusts to 25 mph possible
Friday afternoon within deeper mixing.

Temperatures... Near normal temperatures mainly in the 20s prevail
throughout the week, with some locations across central Wisconsin
even seeing a chance at above freezing highs on Thursday. A quick
shot of colder air arrives behind the passage of the clipper on
Saturday, though should moderate back to above normal heading into
the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 951 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

MVFR and VFR clouds will continue to slowly expand south this
evening as north/northwest flow prevails over Lake Superior. The
clouds are at RHI/GRB/MTW and will likely reach AUW/CWA/ATW. Some
downsloping could allow the clouds to scatter out the further you
move away from Lake Superior, but as was the case today, it could
take some time for that to occur. Leaned a little more pessimistic
with the clouds for the 06z TAFs. Some mid and high clouds will
also spread across the region tonight and again Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Where the low clouds are present, some flurries
are expected at times tonight into Tuesday morning, especially
closer to the MI border, but impacts will be limited to a few
5-7SM visibilities.

Light west/northwest/north winds are expected through the TAF
period.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Goodin
AVIATION.......Bersch