NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 211802
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
102 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Lake Michigan
  nearshore waters with a Beach Hazards Statement for the Lake
  Michigan shoreline late Friday afternoon through Friday
  evening.

- Conditions hazardous to small craft along with beach hazards are
  possible on Saturday due to persistent onshore flow north of
  Sturgeon Bay.

- Below normal temperatures continue throughout the week, warming
  to above normal late this Memorial Day weekend into early next
  week.

- Dry weather is expected through at least Friday evening, with
  periodic rain chances throughout the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Cool temperatures with scattered to broken high clouds were noted
across the region this afternoon. Some evening mostly clear skies
will allow temperatures to fall initially this evening, especially
across north-central Wisconsin. However, satellite observations
indicate additional high clouds upstream will stream in across the
region later tonight. The clouds moving in later tonight should
help limit the potential for frost despite overnight lows in the
middle 30s across north-central Wisconsin. Therefore, a Frost
Advisory is not anticipated tonight for northern Wisconsin.

High pressure will bring continued dry weather to the region
through at least Friday evening as high pressure slowly retreats
from the Great Lakes. Model guidance is still indicating two
systems will approach the region for the start of the Memorial Day
weekend, one from the south and one from the west. The latest
guidance would suggest only a portion of eastern Wisconsin may
get clipped by the northwest precip shield of the southern stream
system late Friday night into Saturday, while portions of central
and north-central Wisconsin could see light precip from the other
system on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. However, forcing appears
weak with these systems, which means generally light precipitation
is expected this weekend instead of heavier steady rain.
Additional weak shortwaves look to bring chances for showers and
storms at times through the middle of next week as well.

Temperatures will gradually warm each day through the Memorial
Day weekend, rising above normal by Sunday with highs in the 70s.
Upper-level ridging and southerly flow looks to bring temps into
the 80s for Memorial Day through at least the middle of next week.

Persistent onshore flow will cause gusty winds and high waves at
times from Friday afternoon through Saturday. The first window for
this is late Friday afternoon through Friday evening across much
of the Lake Michigan shoreline. Given the fairly high confidence
and how close this event is will issue the appropriate Small Craft
Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement for late Friday afternoon
through Friday evening.

After a lull in winds and waves late Friday night into early
Saturday morning, another period of high waves and onshore flow is
possible later Saturday morning into late Saturday afternoon.
Since this event it further out in the future and appears more
marginal, will not issue headlines for this second event with this
forecast issuance. After this second event on Saturday, the rest
of the Memorial Day weekend looks clear for area beaches, which
will also coincide with the warmest expected temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Good flying conditions are expected through this TAF period with
mid-high VFR clouds prevailing. There is a very low chance (less
than 10%) of a stray sprinkle across central and east-central
Wisconsin this afternoon; however, dry air in the low-levels
should limit this activity. Southeast to east winds are expected
throughout this TAF period, mainly under 10 kts.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for WIZ022-040-050.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski