NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 032254
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
454 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow late Wednesday night into Thursday, then again on
  Thursday night. Greatest chances (40-60%) for inch or more of
  snow north central WI to far northeast WI, and over Door
  County.

- Another batch of light snow (less than 1") Saturday night with
  greatest chances (20-30%) north-central and far northeast WI.

- Brief warmup on Thursday with highs at least in the low 30s.
  Parts of central WI have 60-80% of reaching above freezing.

- Falling temperatures on Friday, with readings back below normal
  to start of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

No widespread higher impact weather is expected through the weekend.
Some light snow is expected in a couple waves early Thursday through
early Friday. After brief warmup on Thursday, it will turn colder
Friday into Saturday. This shot of cold will not near as extreme
as what we saw at the end of January. Another system may bring
another chance of snow the middle of next week.

Precip chances: Clipper shortwave and sfc low crossing Manitoba
and northern Ontario will lead to warm air advection, isentropic
ascent over the region late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Model soundings point to saturation in low-levels the farther
south one goes from Upper Michigan border region into Door
County. Break in the snow occurs later Thursday, then arrival of
stronger wave and primary cold front brings another round of light
snow Thursday evening through late Thursday night. Mid-level moisture
cuts decreasing late Thursday night does open door to freezing drizzle
potential portions of central WI to eastern WI. Soundings offer mixed
signals whether there will be any precip at all after the snow ends.
Nudged pops up some Saturday night as another clipper shortwave and
sfc trough track across the western Great Lakes region. Think the
GFS showing over 0.20 inch of QPF in northern WI is overdone (well
over the 90th percentile from LREF Grand Ensemble), but ensembles
and other models suggest a quick hitting batch of light snow (<1")
especially northern parts of WI.

Looking further ahead, and beyond the scope of this forecast,
signal emerging for low pressure system to cross central CONUS
middle of next week. This could bring a widespread snow to the
area Wed-Thu time frame. Have to shoot past the 90th percentile
to see much snow accumulation of note in the ensembles yet, but
we'll see if the agreement continues and if mean/higher end
numbers trend upward.

Temperatures/Winds: After nearish normal high temps in the lower
to middle 20s into Wednesday, a bonafide warm up (albeit only
lasting one day) is expected on Thursday. Highs reach at least
the low 30s for all but northern tier of WI, along with 60-80%
chance of exceeding 35F in area of Waushara, Waupaca, western
Outagamie and western Winnebago counties. Does not look appreciably
sunny though as clouds linger after the morning snow. Temps only
slowly fall into Thursday night and early Friday, then drop off on
Friday as coldest air arrives. Readings bottom out below zero
Friday night into Saturday morning, with lowest apparent temps
down to 5 to 10 below zero. Temps moderate back toward normal on
Sunday, with another period of above freezing temps in the offing
early next week.

In terms of winds, it will be moderately breezy from the southwest
on Thursday. Stronger northwest winds for Friday as the cold front
moves through. Gusts on land will reach at least 25 mph, but stronger
gusts over 35 mph will be restricted to the Lake Michigan waters.
Forecast soundings and LREF probabilities suggest a lower risk of
gale gusts (40%) on Lake Michigan Friday morning, mainly toward
Washington Island. Overall looks like solid high-end Small Craft
Advisory conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 454 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Primary aviation impact through the TAF period will be a period of
MVFR cigs as lake induced status off Lake Superior drifts south this
evening. RAP/HRRR soundings show these clouds in a very thin layer
so it's possible cigs stay mainly SCT. Additionally mid-level clouds
currently over western WI will drift over the area tonight. Skies
should clear out again late tomorrow morning. Winds will remain
light and variable through Wednesday morning with a more steady NW
breezy developing during the afternoon.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......GK