NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 271109
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
509 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy south winds will usher in much warmer temperatures today.
  Highs will range from the low 40s over the far north to the
  lower 50s across central and east-central Wisconsin.

- A narrow 2-3 county wide band of snow is expected to develop
  Saturday somewhere south of HWY 10 and north of I-94. Within
  this band there is a 50-60% for greater than 3 inches of snow.

- A warming trend is expected next week as a more spring like
  pattern sets up over Wisconsin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Southwest winds will become breezy this morning helping to usher in
much warmer temperatures. Highs this afternoon are forecast to reach
the low 40s across northern WI and up to the low 50s west of the Fox
Valley. These well above normal temperatures won't last long,
however, as a strong cold front sweeps across the region late this
afternoon and evening. Don't anticipate any precip along the cold
front as low and mid levels remain very dry during the passage. The
increasing CAA directly behind the front will lead to some stronger
wind gusts 30-35 mph late this evening.

Attention then shifts to a possible round of snow across central and
east-central WI Saturday. LREF mean upper-level flow fields show the
potential for a coupled jet structure coinciding with a vort-max. In
the mid-levels ascent looks to be focused by a narrow f-gen band
extending from southern MN through east-central WI. With this set up
expect a narrow 2-3 county wind band of moderate to heavy snowfall
to develop somewhere south of HWY10 and north of I-94 Saturday. 00Z
CAMs have generally trended closer to HWY10, while global ensembles
continues with a more southerly track. Due to the narrow nature of
the expected snowband think ensembles are too dispersive in the
location of the band leading to lower high end probabilities. Leaned
slightly toward the CAMs during this period thinking there is a 50-
60% chance for at least 3" within this band. Adding to that the 00Z
HREF max 24hr-snowfall probably does the best job showing the high
end potential with up to 6 inches possible within the band. The
gradient in snow totals will likely be pretty sharp on the northern
side of this band as much drier arctic air will be in place over
northern WI. These types are snow bands are often very tricky to pin
down until they develop so may not know the exact track until
Saturday morning when the band develops over southern MN.

Beyond Saturday lingering troughing over the region Sunday may spur
on some flurries Sunday, but with a much drier air mass in place
don't much in the way of accumulations. Pattern then starts to
become more spring like next work week with rising temperatures and
increasing return flow bringing well above normal moisture to the
region by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 508 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Transient areas of patchy fog have develop overnight, mainly across
central and northern WI. Fog should burn off quickly once the sun
comes up, but periods of MVFR vsbys may linger through 13Z at RHI,
CWA, and RHI. Once the fog clears VFR conditions should prevail
across the region today with high clouds stating to stream over the
region this morning.

Southwest winds will become breezy today with gusts of 25-30 kts.
Winds will then veer around to the northwest this evening as a cold
front moves through the region. This may create a period of LLWS
late this afternoon and evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......GK