NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 221145
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
645 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Lake Michigan
  nearshore waters with a Beach Hazards Statement for the Lake
  Michigan shoreline late this afternoon through this evening.

- Temperatures to gradually warm into the Memorial Day weekend to
  well above normal. Starting on Memorial Day, highs in the 80s
  are forecast each day into next week.

- Dry weather is expected through tonight, with periodic light
  rain chances throughout the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

This morning through Today...Satellite imagery showed mid-high level
clouds prevailing across the region this morning, while radar
reflectivity was picking up on isolated echoes. With too much dry
air in the low-levels, any of these echoes/showers were struggling
to reach the surface. If anything, virga is more likely occurring,
but cannot rule out a few sprinkles reaching the surface. These
conditions are expected to continue throughout the day with some
breaks in the clouds at times. With a subtle pressure gradient
overhead, breezy east winds are expected today, gusting to 20-25
mph. Winds will subside late tonight. Precipitation chances for late
tonight have significantly decreased (mainly less than 15%) as a
southern stream system is expected to remain well south and east of
the area. High temperatures will be slightly warmer today, but still
below normal, ranging from the low to mid 60s away from the
lakeshore. Overnight lows will be around normal, ranging from the
mid 40s to low 50s.

Memorial Day Weekend...Saturday is also appearing to be mostly dry
as a weak boundary associated with an upper-level trough looks to
advance very slowly from the west. However, there are some
indications of enough moisture in the low to mid levels to result in
sprinkles or isolated light rain showers ahead of the boundary
throughout Saturday. Between late Saturday afternoon and Sunday, the
slow-moving boundary and upper-level trough will track across the
area, bringing periodic chances (20-40%) of light showers. Depending
on the timing of the passage on Sunday, there may be enough
instability to aid in thunderstorm potential. Models indicate a
shortwave may bring another chance for showers and storms on
Memorial Day, but details are too muddled to determine timing and
placement at this time. Temperatures for the weekend are expected to
gradually warm each day, peaking on Monday with highs in the 80s
away from the lakeshore.

Next Week...Upper-level ridging is progged to build over the north-
central CONUS early next week. Anticipate mainly dry conditions
occurring from this ridging, but some model guidance is still
spitting out some diurnally driven showers and storms at times.
Given the ridging, high temperatures are expected to remain well
above normal climbing into the 80s each day away from the
lakeshore.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 644 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Mid-high clouds prevailed across the region this morning and are
expected to continue through this evening. A stray sprinkle cannot
be ruled out this afternoon into this evening, but dry air in the
low-levels will limit this activity. East to southeast winds are
expected to increase this morning and afternoon, with gusts to
20-25 kts, and continue into this evening. However, as surface
winds ease after sunset, marginal LLWS may develop as winds
between 1000-2000 ft remain around 30s. After 06z Sat, MVFR cigs
are expected to develop in east-central WI and expand
northwestward reaching the central and north-central WI TAF sites
around 09z-11z Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Persistent onshore flow will cause gusty east winds and increased
waves this afternoon into this evening. A Small Craft Advisory has
been issued for locations along the nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan, and a Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for all
Lake Michigan beaches. However, the latest guidance would suggest
winds and waves not being as hazardous as originally forecast, but
will continue to keep the headlines as is for now, given how
close conditions are forecast to be to criteria. Another period of
increased winds and waves is possible on Saturday, however, the
latest guidance also showed signs of decreased potential. The rest
of the Memorial Day weekend looks clear for area beaches, which
will also coincide with the warmest expected temperatures.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through
this evening for WIZ022-040-050.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Kruk
MARINE.........Kruk