NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 071823
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
123 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be at or below normal into next week. A Frost
  Advisory is in effect form 1 AM to 8 AM Friday morning.

- 25-35% chance for light showers Saturday and again next
  Tuesday. Minimal rainfall amounts expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Temps/Frost: Temperatures falling into the low to middle 30s tonight
will lead to another round of patchy to widespread frost across
central and east-central WI all the way to the lakeshore. Upstream
trends and hi-res model guidance points towards clearing skies early
Friday morning which could lead to a few locations becoming a few
degrees colder than currently forecast, however, the duration of any
sub-freezing temperatures should only be an hour or two so have held
off on any Freeze Warnings in favor of another Frost Advisory where
the growing season has begun.

Friday looks like the warmest day over the next week as mostly to
partly sunny skies in the morning should help warm much of the
forecast area up into the low to middle 60s. Lows Friday night are
forecast in the 40s at most locations so don't anticipate needing
any Frost/Freeze headlines.

With persistent northwest flow this weekend through the first half
of next week temps will generally remain cooler than normal.  Highs
most days will range from the upper 40s to low 60s. Additional
Frost/Freeze headlines will likely be needed early next week.

Precipitation: Mid-level WV imagery shows one short-wave currently
moving across northeast WI with another diving over northern MN. As
this second wave continues moving southeast this evening it may (15-
25% chance) kick off a round of light showers across northern WI,
while most of the forecast area remains dry into Friday.

Another shorth-wave approaching the area late Friday may spur on
light showers across eastern WI, however, again with such a dry air
mass in place QPF amounts will remain light (only a few hundreths).
More widespread chance for showers arrives Saturday as a cold front
treks across the forecast area.

Another chance for widespread showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms comes Tuesday as another short-wave passes through the
persistent northwest flow. A slight increase in PWATs is expected
ahead of this short-wave, however, NBM mean QPF amounts are only 0.1-
0.2 inches.

In between the light rain chances, brief periods of elevated fire
weather conditions will occur due to deep mixing, low RHs, moderate
winds, and increasing dry fuels. Forecast soundings Friday show very
impressive mixing to around 700mb which may lead to RHs in the 20-30
percent range.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. BKN cu based
around 4-6kft has started to fill in where this mornings status had
eroded, expect this trend to continue through this afternoon. Other
than a 20% chance for light showers across northern WI this
afternoon expect dry conditions through the TAF period. Overnight
skies should clear out and become mostly clear across much of the
region with fair weather cu redeveloped mid Friday morning based
around 6-7 kft.

West winds turning to the northwest this  afternoon will increase to
8-10 kts with gusts up to 20kt. Light and variable winds are
expected tonight. A lake breeze boundary may turn winds at MTW to
the S/SSE this afternoon/evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for WIZ022-030-031-
035>040-045-048>050.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......GK