NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 051852
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1252 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is on its way into the region this morning.
  Probability of an inch of snow remains around 40-60% along the
  Upper Peninsula border southeastwards into northern Door County.

- A second round of light snow is expected late tonight into
  Friday morning. Some freezing drizzle could mix in at times
  overnight. Highest snowfall for the second round will be focused
  to north-central Wisconsin.

- A fast moving clipper system will bring another chance for some
  light snow into the region Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Focus of the forecast will be on the potential for light snow
this morning and again late tonight, along with any accompanying
freezing drizzle.

The first round of light snow will be ongoing this morning,
having arrived in north-central Wisconsin as of 07-08Z. This
timing puts it on track to get into the Fox Valley around 10Z-13Z,
which will impact the morning commute. Visibility could briefly
drop to a mile or two as the snow moves through, so if you are
driving this morning be aware of the potential for changing road
conditions. Some low potential (~20%) remains on the tail end of
this first snow to see some freezing drizzle, but soundings so far
this morning do suggest that the snow associated with this first
wave of warm air advection aloft will move off by the time ice
becomes scarce, which should help mitigate impacts. Snowfall
totals will be under an inch for most, but probabilities do paint
out around 50-60% chance of getting over an inch for areas along
the Upper Peninsula border, following the Menominee River
southeastwards. Probabilities then taper off quickly
southwestwards into central Wisconsin.

The second round then arrives tonight as cold air advection
returns along a weak cold front. Another widespread round of light
snow is to be expected, but this time there will be some better
(20-40%) chance for some mixed precipitation on the tail end of
the event as ice becomes scarce aloft. Fortunately, qpf will be
relatively low with this event as well, so any light snow ahead
of the freezing drizzle may serve to help prevent icing on many
exposed surfaces. Still, this will bear watching to see if drizzle
becomes more widespread, which would increase impacts on travel
overnight. Similar to the first round, snow totals will generally
be under an inch for most, with only north-central Wisconsin near
the Upper Peninsula border getting to around 40-60% chance of
exceeding an inch. Totaling the two rounds together then, a
widespread inch or snowfall is expected for most, with only areas
in north-central and possibly northern Door County expected to get
closer to two inches total.

Finally, another fast moving clipper could bring some light snow
through the region quickly during the day Saturday, but overall
amounts will be quite light as the air mass in the region will
still be dry during this time. Dry conditions are then in the
forecast until the middle to end of next week.

Colder air follows in the wake of the snow Friday which will
serve to lower temperatures Friday night and Saturday, with low
temperatures around 5 to 10 below zero Saturday morning. This
shouldn't make headline cold criteria but will still be one of the
colder nights in the forecast. Temperatures are then expected to
moderate quickly going into next week, with highs rising quickly
into the 30s. A few locations in the long range even have a shot
at seeing 40.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1251 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

A mix of MVFR and IFR flying conditions early this afternoon,
mainly from low cigs, with the lowest bases across northern and
central WI. Some place still seeing some lower visibilities
(3-6SM) across northern and central WI as well.

Flying conditions will remain similar through the TAF period.
Quiet weather with low clouds will persist through this afternoon
and early evening, followed by another round of light snow tonight
which will bring some MVFR/IFR vsby restrictions at times, too.
Snow will end Friday by ~14Z, with improvements to sky conditions
afterwards.

West winds around 5-10 kts through tonight, veering NW and gusting
to 20-30 kts on Friday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......KLJ