NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 282358
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
558 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temps this weekend, then a slow but steady warming
  trend for next week as a more spring-like pattern sets up,
  resulting in at least a couple chances for rain or snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Today's Snow Chances...Been closely monitoring the progression of an
f-gen snow band as its tracked into WI early this afternoon. Radar,
satellite, and hi-res model trends continue to agree in lowering the
potential for the snow to reach the southern portions of the
forecast area late this afternoon/early this evening and remain
across southern WI. The snow/saturation is struggling to lift north
and overcome dry air advecting from the north. As a result, have
lowered PoPs and snowfall amounts significantly from the previous
forecast, keeping snowfall accumulations up to 1 inch mainly south
of a WI Rapids to Appleton to Manitowoc line. To compare, NBM
probabilities for 2+" were 20-40% from WI Rapids to Oshkosh with
the previous forecast and are now 0-15%. But, given the nature of
f-gen snow bands (sharp gradients in amounts, subtle shifts in
track), it is very possible the forecast area may not see any
snowfall accumulations, or any snow will stay confined to the
southern tier of counties in the forecast area. The likelihood of
the opposite occurring (the band shifting much further north) is
very low given the amount of dry air to the north and models not
indicating this outcome anymore. Snow chances will come to an end
this evening as the f-gen weakens and high pressure builds in
further from the north. There are still some indications of a
lake-effect snow band developing over far eastern WI this evening
as surface winds turn NNE; however, 850mb winds will remain from
the N or NNW, which should keep any snow band just offshore of the
forecast area.

Additional Rain/Snow Chances Next Week...As the flow turns zonal,
there will be periodic chances for precip through the week. First
system arrives Monday night into Tuesday as a wintry mix, with the
potential for light snowfall accumulations (NBM probs of 1+" up to
25%). Another system is forecast to arrive sometime between the
middle of next week and late next week. Timing and placement details
are very uncertain at this time, but with temperatures moderating,
mainly rain is anticipated, but a little snow may mix in over the
north at times, especially at night.

Temperatures...Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend
with highs mainly in the 20s. Some wind chills in the single digits
above and below zero are expected tonight and Sunday night.
Temperatures will gradually rise throughout next week due to the
pattern change, with high temperatures warming into the 40s most
days, and perhaps into the 50s for some spots late next week. The
warmer temps, along with the rain, will lead to a shrinking
snowpack, with most/all of the snow likely melting across central
and eastern WI. North-central WI has a foot or two of snow on the
ground, so that will be slower to melt. Some minor hydro issues
could arise if/where the largest snowpack exists, but hopefully this
pattern will allow for a gradual melt. The ice jam threat will also
increase for those rivers that are still frozen.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 557 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

After a brief brush with light snow late this afternoon in our
far southern areas from Wautoma to Oshkosh, main area of snow has
now shifted farther south. Also, no real sign of any lake effect
forming off Lake Michigan near MTW.

All this adds up to removing any additional mention of snow for
MTW this evening. Thus, looking at a VFR forecast at all TAF sites
with mid clouds shifting through rest of tonight into early Sunday,
before partial clearing occurs from west to east on Sunday. Winds
will be light tonight into Sunday morning, shifting from the
northwest to north-northeast. Winds become light and variable Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening.

Looking ahead, VFR continues Sunday night and Monday with next
chance for precipitation not occurring until late Monday night and
Tuesday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......JLA