NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 082116
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
316 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 50 to 80 percent chance of light ice accumulations
  over far northern WI later Monday afternoon and Monday evening,
  followed by a half inch of snow. A Winter Weather Advisory has
  been issued for areas along and north of a line from Rhinelander
  to Mountain to Sturgeon Bay from 3 pm Monday through 3 am
  Tuesday. Hazardous travel conditions are expected.

- A mainly dry and mild period is expected for the rest of the
  week, with above normal temperatures anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Aside from a few flurries in eastern WI, it has been a dry day.
Low clouds expanded westward across the forecast area, but
failed to fill in over our western tier of counties. The low
clouds limited daytime heating, with highs only reaching the 20s.

Expect mainly dry conditions tonight, but did maintain a 20%
chance of light snow or flurries over far NE WI due to WAA and
upsloping SE winds. Overcast skies and lows in the upper teens and
lower 20s are anticipated.

A dynamic clipper system arrives Monday afternoon and night,
accompanied by a a coupled upper level jet, FGEN, a cold frontal
passage, and short-wave trough. The best dynamics and moisture are
focused over far northern WI, where probabilistic forecasts now
show a 50-80% chance of at least a light glaze of ice, with a
20-40% chance of a tenth of an inch right along the Upper Michigan
border. Most of the ice accumulations are expected to occur
during the late afternoon and evening, when significant warm layer
aloft (+3 to + 5 C) will be in place. There is some concern that
surface temperatures will initially be above freezing, but wet
bulbing should occur as steadier rain arrives. CAA, dynamic
cooling and wet bulbing will quickly erode the warm layer aloft
later in the evening, leading to a changeover to snow. Based on
our latest ice accumulation forecasts, and after coordination with
MQT, have decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for areas
along and north of a line from Rhinelander to Mountain to Sturgeon
Bay from 3 pm Monday through 3 am Tuesday. Hazardous travel
appears likely, especially near the Upper Michigan border. Most of
the precipitation should pull out of far NE WI late Monday night,
but developing NW flow and CAA may result in scattered lake-
effect snow showers in far NC WI on Tuesday.

High pressure dominates our weather for the rest of the work
week, with only small precipitation chances expected through next
weekend. Below normal precipitation is anticipated for the
period.

Temperatures will trend above normal through the week, with highs
in the upper 20s and 30s on most days.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

MVFR ceilings covered the eastern two-thirds of the forecast area
at issuance time, and appeared poised to move into the western TAF
sites. Have opted to take a pessimistic approach with the low
clouds, and kept them in the eastern TAF sites until late
tonight, and western TAF sites until late Monday morning, though
overall confidence in these trends was low. There could be a few
flurries or very light snow showers in NE/NC WI, aided by WAA and
SE upslope flow, but did not include any mention in the TAFs.

SE winds will gradually veer S-SSW late tonight into Monday
morning, with speeds generally in the 5-15 kt range.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM CST Tuesday for
WIZ005-010>013-021-022-073.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch