NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 311951
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
251 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather prevails through midweek. Chances for showers
  and storms return later this week.

- Above normal temperatures through next weekend. Highs mainly in
  the 80s.

- Elevated fire weather conditions this week due to low relative
  humidity and above normal temperatures. Near-critical conditions
  may develop Thursday when winds increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Precipitation Chances...A strong ridge of high pressure is expected
to dominate the weather pattern through at least midweek, keeping
conditions dry. There are two minor wrinkles that some guidance is
indicating could bring very light scattered rain showers or
sprinkles. The first being late tonight with a subtle shift of the
persistent stationary moisture to the southwest of the region moving
into the southwest portion of the forecast area. The second being a
lake enhanced boundary shifting west across the area Monday
afternoon/evening that may interact with a pocket of moisture in
central and north-central WI. However, much of the area is expected
to remain dry with the prevailing high pressure.

By Wednesday night, the upper-level ridge will flatten and the high
pressure will slide eastward as a shortwave trough approaches from
the northern Plains. Beginning Thursday, the pattern becomes
unsettled with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
through next weekend. Since there are still some timing issues, it
is too early to determine any severe potential at this time.

Temperatures...High temperatures are expected to be about 5-10
degrees above normal through the weekend, with highs ranging from
the upper 70s into the 80s. Temperatures look to peak either on
Wednesday or Thursday with highs potentially climbing into the
upper 80s, but this will depend on cloud cover and precip timing.
There is also some potential for temperatures to climb into the
low 90s these days, but probabilities are low (30% or lower). With
dew points at tolerable levels throughout the week, the heat risk
is low (level 1 out of 4), which primarily impacts those who are
extremely sensitive to heat and without cooling/hydration.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high clouds
continue to filter over the region. Generally, winds will be
under 8 kts mainly from the south this afternoon, with
southeasterly winds at MTW due to a light lake breeze. Winds
become light and variable overnight, before turning
east/southeast Monday morning.

There are subtle indications for patchy fog sometime between
06z-12z Mon. Confidence is not extremely high in this occurring,
but if it were to develop, the greatest potential would be at the
RHI TAF site. Included a TEMPO group for now.

There is a low-end (15-20%) for scattered showers across western
WI along and west of an KEAU to KDLL line, early Monday morning
(06z-12z), that could shift east into parts of central WI;
however, any aviation impacts should be minimal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Until a widespread wetting rain occurs, elevated fire weather
conditions will continue through much of this week as afternoon
RHs will routinely drop to 20 to 30% or lower with temperatures in
the 70s/80s. Despite green up progressing and/or completing, fuel
input from fire partners points to concern where recent dryness
persists, any days with increasing winds could allow the fire
weather potential to rise to near-critical. The greatest
potential appears to be Thursday as the lower RH values could
coincide with increasing gradient winds as the prevailing high
pressure exits east and a shortwave/trough approaches from the
northern Plains.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Kruk
FIRE WEATHER...Kruk