NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 192055
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
255 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Confidence has increased in a band of 3 to 6 inches of snow and
  sleet extending from central into far northeast WI from midnight
  through noon Friday. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued
  for this area. Hazardous travel conditions are likely, including
  during the Friday morning commute.

- Periodic light snow continues through the weekend, followed by
  dry conditions early next week, then a mix of light rain/snow
  during the middle of next week.

- Above normal temperatures return to near normal early next week,
  then climb above normal again during the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Low stratus covered the northwest part of the forecast area this
afternoon, while abundant sunshine was observed farther
southeast. Temperatures ranged from around 30 far northwest to the
lower to middle 40s southeast. Strong low pressure over northern
MO (developing in the LFQ of a 150 kt jet streak) was lifting
northeast toward the Great Lakes. This system will bring a swath
significant precipitation to the forecast area tonight into
Friday.

The low pressure system is expected to reach far SE WI late
tonight, then track through central Lake Michigan into northern
Lower Michigan on Friday. Strong dynamics and abundant moisture
will lead to a half inch to an inch of QPF over the southeast CWA,
with lesser amounts farther northwest. Where this heavier QPF
interacts with colder surface temperatures, there will be
potential for significant snow/sleet accumulations. Here are the
main points that impact this forecast:

- Models have come into better agreement on a swath of snow and
  sleet impacting areas from Central WI into far NE WI late
  tonight through Friday morning. Snowfall totals of 3 to 6 inches
  are expected in this area, and a Winter Weather Advisory has
  been issued.

- Have backed off on model-generated freezing rain and ice
  accumulations, as the warm layer aloft that overlays sub-
  freezing surface temperatures is weak (+2 C or less), which is
  more supportive of sleet. Any freezing rain potential would then
  need to develop in association with mid-level drying (and loss
  of ice crystals in the saturated layer), but no clear-cut dry
  slotting is expected to occur over the headline area, so have
  discounted this potential. Have focused more on sleet potential
  and removed most, if not all, of the freezing rain from the
  forecast.

- Above freezing surface temperatures and warmer air aloft will
  keep most of the precipitation as rain over the Fox Valley,
  bayshore and lakeshore areas, with a changeover to mixed
  rain/snow as the precipitation is tapering off Friday morning.
  Minimal snow accumulation is expected in these areas.

Periodic light snow will continue over mainly the northeast half
of the forecast area through the weekend, with minimal
accumulations. A dry period is expected during the early part of
the next work week, followed by a clipper-type low pressure
system with mixed rain/snow during the middle of next week.

Temperatures will remain a little above normal through the
weekend, drop back to normal early next week, then rise above
normal again during the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Low clouds have eroded over the southeast half of the forecast
area, but are hanging tough at the western TAF sites. Think that
AUW/CWA may break out of the low clouds later this afternoon, but
RHI will likely remain stuck in the low clouds through the
afternoon and evening.

Precipitation will spread into the southeast part of the forecast
area later this evening, expand northwest through the night, and
persist over the region through Friday morning. The precipitation
should remain all snow at the western TAF sites, with periods of
moderate snow possible at AUW/CWA late tonight into early Friday.
Farther east, GRB/ATW/MTW will start off as rain, then likely mix
with snow Friday morning. A mix of snow and sleet will likely
occur west of the Fox Valley/bayshore areas late tonight into
early Friday.

Light winds will increase and become gusty from the NE-NW late
tonight into Friday morning. Pockets of LLWS will develop Friday
morning, but most of this occurs in between the TAF sites.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday
for WIZ011>013-019>021-030-031-035>037-045.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch