NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 071747
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1147 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20 to 50 percent chances for light snow return tonight, but
  any accumulations should be mainly under an inch. Minor
  impacts to travel could occur early Sunday where snow falls.

- After a short-lived cool down today, temperatures will trend
  above average into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Precipitation Chances:

A weak shortwave trough embedded in northwest flow will slide
southeast tonight. Overall, snow amounts look to be quite light,
although CAMs show some variation in placement of any
frontogenetically enhanced banding. HREF ensemble max snow amounts
exceed 1-2" in spots (should a stronger narrow fgen band develop),
but overall most areas will see little accumulation as soundings
indicate rather dry low-level profiles, which would serve to inhibit
snow production. Although the moisture depth shallows out on Sunday,
some model guidance suggests enough low-level moisture and lift in
warm advection and weak southerly flow for some patchy freezing
drizzle, but confidence right now is low.

Beyond the weekend, there's little signal for more impactful precip
event through the first half of the week. Some low end probabilities
(10-30%) exist early in the week as a shortwave trough passes along
the Canadian border. With the push of the warmer air aloft, precip
types could be a concern, with EPS precip type meteograms indicating
low end (10-15%) chances for very light freezing rain Monday
night.

Additional shortwave energy will cascade through the flow through
late week, but predictability drops off. Cluster analysis from the
global ensembles indicate notable differences late in the week in
the longwave pattern with some solutions suggesting drier northwest
flow while a subset of members(~20%) indicate a more zonal flow with
troughing across the Great Plains and somewhat higher precip
chances. Given these differences, 20-30% precipitation chances are
reasonable at this time.

Temperatures:

Temperatures will briefly fall back below average today as Canadian
high pressure sinks south across the Great Lakes. Even by Sunday,
temperatures will begin to trend back upward as the high shifts east
and southerly flow develops. Milder Pacific air will continue to
spill eastward into the first half of the coming week as the flow
aloft becomes quasizonal. Coincident with the stronger push of warm
advection, 850 mb temps via global ensembles (GEFS/EPS/CMCE) push
the 90th percentile relative to climo by Monday afternoon into
Tuesday with high temps potentially eclipsing 40F in spots,
especially on Tuesday as winds shift westerly. With the relatively
zonal flow pattern expected to persist through the week, above
average temperatures continue to be favored (60-80%) through late
week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1138 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Mid-level clouds were increasing across NC/C WI at issuance time,
and this trend will continue into eastern WI this afternoon. There
is still some uncertainty regarding snow chances tonight, though
the southwest third looks favored during the overnight period,
then along the Lake Michigan shoreline late tonight into Sunday
morning. Even so, snow chances are only 20-40 percent, and will
only carry flurries at AUW/CWA/MTW at this time. The main limiting
factor is a very dry air mass below 800 mb. There is some
indication that a VFR stratocumulus layer may spread inland off
Lake Michigan late tonight into Sunday morning.

Light and variable winds will become SE at 5 to 10 knots
overnight into Sunday morning.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....JM
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch