NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 280911
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
311 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures will continue (100% confidence) through
the work week, with wind chill values ranging from -10 in the Fox
Valley to -25 in north-central WI.

- Dry conditions are expected through the work-week, with only a 30%
chance chance of flurries across northern WI.

- Gradually moderating temperatures over the weekend into early
  next week trending back closer to seasonal averages in the 20s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Today-Friday: Mainly Dry and Continued Cold

There is around a 30 percent chance of minimal-impact, lake-effect,
flurries across northern Wisconsin. Accumulation-wise, no
accumulation to a light dusting is expected.

Northwest flow aloft will continue over the next several days with
broad surface high pressure centered across the plains keeping
Wisconsin under cold low-level northerly flow. As a result, little
improvement in temperatures will occur through the rest of the work
week with highs remaining in the single digits and teens above zero
and lows in the single digits and teens below zero.

The range of expected wind chill values for tonight and tomorrow
night are in the -20 to -25 degree range across central through
north-central Wisconsin, and in the -10 to -15 degree range across
the Fox Valley region. As a result, Cold Weather Advisory headlines
are not likely at this time for tonight and/or tomorrow night... but
we will continue to monitor.

With precipitable water values remaining in the 10th to 20th
percentiles relative to climo, the pattern favors mainly dry
conditions. A few flurries/snow showers could not be ruled out with
any shortwave trough passages. Lake effect snow showers may impact
parts of north-central Wisconsin at times with low chances for
lake effect snow showers along parts of the western Lake
Michigan shoreline towards Friday as low-level winds turn
northerly with strong high pressure nosing south from southern
Canada.

Saturday-Monday: Slowly Moderating Temperatures

As the broad high pressure system passes southeast over the weekend
and mid-level heights rise with warm advection, there remains a
consistent signal for temperatures to gradually rebound over the
weekend into early next week. Chances for any significant
precipitation remain low into next week, with some low (20-40%)
snow chances by Sunday/Monday with modest moisture return and warm
air advection associated with a clipper system tracking through
the western Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1032 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Weak sfc trough dropping through after midnight will result in
scattered MVFR cigs over northern WI. Clouds increase further on
Wednesday, with scattered MVFR cigs over much of the area. Greatest
chances for broken cigs below 2kft will be on Wednesday morning
at RHI. There may also be snow showers or flurries farther north
toward the Upper Michigan border. West winds stay at 5-10 kts
overnight. Northwest winds increase at all TAF sites by late
Wednesday morning, with gusts 15-20 kts on Wednesday afternoon.
Winds ease again by early Wednesday evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kotenberg
AVIATION.......JLA