NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 111903
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
103 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A pattern change bringing above normal temperatures is expected
  beginning Thursday and continuing into next week. Temperatures
  will likely (40-80% chance) hit 40 degrees by Friday and could
  hit 50 degrees (30-50% chance) south of highway 29 on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Ridging over the upper-Midwest will bring low impact weather to the
region through this weekend. Most noteworthy impact is a 15-20%
chance for fog to develop across northern WI tonight, however, with
drier air arriving with the high pressure any fog that does develop
should remain patchy. Addtioanl periods of fog will be possible this
weekend as warmer air moves over the melting snowpack. Otherwise,
chance for precip this weekend have trended downward over the last
24 hours with ensembles coming into better agreement in a more
southerly track for a low across the southern CONUS.

Expect a more active pattern to develop early next week as troughing
moves over the central CONUS. Ensemble and deterministic guidance
are in generally agreement that a seasonally warm moist (PWATS up to
0.8") air mass will move over the region. This may lead to a more
impactful precipitation event Tuesday into Wednesday. However, there
is still a large degree of uncertainty with vertical temperature
profiles. This makes determining a dominate p-type difficult for
this period.

Temperatures will begin to trend warmer than normal Thursday with a
50-80% chance of highs above 40 degrees as soon as Friday and a 50-
90% chance by Sunday. There is a 30-50% chance that areas south of
HWY 29 reach 50 degrees by early next week. The warming trend will
lead to a quickly melting snowpack and deteriorating ice conditions,
which does raise the concern for ice jams next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1121 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

An area of MVFR status along with Wisconsin Michigan border continues
to slowly erode northward with clear skies now over most of the
region. VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon and
evening at all TAF sites. Overnight there is a 15-20% chance for
fog, mainly across northern WI, however, with drier air arriving
along with the high pressure thing any fog should be patchy. VFR
conditions are expected again for much of Thursday.

NW winds gusting up to 20kts will continue through this afternoon
before diminishing this evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......GK