NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 240434
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1134 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Intermittent chances for rain (20-40%) and thunderstorms are
  forecast through Monday. The risk for organized heavier rain or
  severe weather is low.

- Temperatures to trend above normal starting Sunday, with
  reaching in some places approaching 90 degrees on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Most hours will be dry over the next few days, but there are a few
small chances for showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile,
temperatures will start to trend above normal.

Precipitation: Radar indicates light rain and sprinkles which
were lingering across Door County have moved north. Cannot rule
out a stray shower or sprinkle over the next hour or so, but for
the most part it will be dry. Weak returns on radar show a few
sprinkles may also be reaching the ground in north-central WI, but
for the most part it has been dry. Satellite imagery shows clouds
across the western and eastern forecast area, and sunny to partly
cloudy skies in the middle.

A weak surface front across western WI will continue to track
east this afternoon and evening. Can see isolated to scattered
light rain showers in western WI slowly moving towards central WI.
Continued to carry PoPs from mid-afternoon through early tonight
from west to east across the forecast area. Expect any rain to be
light and short-lived, with amounts under a tenth of an inch. With
up to ~200 J/kg of CAPE cannot rule out a rogue lightning strike,
mainly in central WI. Any showers or sprinkles will depart
towards Lake Michigan by sunrise Sunday. Forecast soundings also
show some shallow low-level moisture, and guidance is showing
patchy fog development overnight. Do not expect widespread or
dense fog, but some patchy fog with lower vsbys are forecast
through shortly after sunrise.

Most of Sunday looks dry and warmer, with high temps in the 70s to
low 80s. LL warm advection and increasing LL jet will provide
enough lift to generate scattered showers late Sunday afternoon
and overnight; although, guidance and CAMs are very mixed on the
extent of these showers. With instability up to ~700 J/kg,
isolated thunderstorms are also possible within this time, but
severe weather is not expected.

Forecast gets muddier into Monday, but generally looking at more
low-end precip chances with an even smaller thunder potential.
Upper ridge builds in for the mid to late week and currently
expecting mainly dry conditions during that time.

Temperatures...After today the area gets into a period of above
normal temperatures. Readings on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday
will be the warmest with highs in the 80s away from Lake Michigan.
There is a 20-50% probability for highs to reach 90 degrees in
central WI on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

The band of light to moderate showers has shifted east of the
RHI/AUW/CWA TAF sites, but will continue to move through the
eastern TAF sites overnight. As the showers end, light winds and
any breaks in the cloud cover should allow for fog and low stratus
to form, with IFR/LIFR flight conditions expected. A weak cold
frontal passage will bring improvement toward daybreak (west) and
mid-morning (east), with VFR conditions expected for the rest of
Sunday and Sunday evening. A few light showers could develop in
central WI, including the CWA/AUW TAF sites Sunday evening.

Light and variable winds are expected overnight, with west winds
5 to 10 kts on Sunday, then light S-SW winds by Sunday evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch