NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 241114
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
614 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will moderate the next few days, rising to above
  normal again through Thursday.

- Some rivers will remain above bankfull this week.

- Warmer trend for Wednesday night through Thursday with most
  precipitation taking form of light rain. Rain may mix with snow
  later Thursday as colder air arrives.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Weak front shifts across the northern portions of WI today before
lifting back to the north tonight. Echoes showing up on radar,
but very dry low-levels will restrict anything more than a few
flurries from reaching the surface. Perhaps a brief snow shower
occurs north, but seems like a stretch given the dry air. Skies
expected to be mostly cloudy today as even as the clouds with the
disturbance and front move through this morning, they will
quickly be replaced by shroud of mid and high clouds working in
from the northern plains as jet energy crests the top of broad
ridge over the western CONUS. Despite the clouds, highs will still
be a bit above average from the lower 40s near Lake Michigan, to
the mid 40s to lower 50s elsewhere.

Next low pressure system in the stronger mid-upper flow organizes
over the northern Plains on Wed. This low and an associated front
glides across the western Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday.
System is warm, and seems to have trended warmer than what it was
looking like previously. Most models favor just rain for the
ptype even deep into the night on Wednesday night. Some potential
for near sfc temps to be around freezing (potential for fzra), but
most models and NBM ptype probabilities suggest rain and minimal
fzra. Highest chances for widespread precip occur on Thursday
morning as the front attempts to sink across. Boundary overhead
should result in a sharp north to south temperature gradient in
the afternoon, with southern areas flirting with 60 while northern
areas drop into the 30s with a small chance of rain/snow as the
colder air arrives. Even areas that do get warmer, could see temps
fall off later in the day. Spread in the 25th to 75th percentile
for high temps is quite large, especially south of highway 29.

Beyond Thursday, looks pretty quiet through the weekend and at
least next Monday as high pressure gradually shifts across the
western Great Lakes. There is a hint of another wave dropping
across the area on Saturday though which at the least will bring
more clouds, and perhaps maybe scattered light rain. Models and
ensembles are split on that idea at this point though. Guessing
this is why MEX (GFS MOS) and ECX (ECMWF MOS) guidance are cooler
than NBM, so that trend may start showing up in the blended
forecast later on. Sunday and Monday should see highs inland from
the lakes pushing into the 50s and 60s. Next system arrives just
beyond reach of this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Plan on VFR conditions today and tonight with mid to high clouds.
Surface winds will be predominantly out of the S/SW today (gusts
to 15 kts) before becoming more variable at less than 10 kts tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Several rivers will remain above bankfull this week as the snow
continues to gradually melt and make it into the rivers. Despite
high water levels in some areas, no significant flooding is
anticipated at this time.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......JLA
HYDROLOGY......JLA