NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 310422
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1022 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

No significant changes to the previous forecast. Light snow and
flurries continue over eastern and north-central WI this evening.
Some breaks in the clouds exist north of Green Bay.

Don't expect much change through the end of the evening. As high
pressure builds into the region, there are indications of a
gradual clearing trend late tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dusting to an inch of snow may create travel concerns from
  Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.

- A more impactful system is anticipated for Thursday PM into
  Friday AM, with the potential for accumulating snow, gusty winds
  and possible gales on Lake Michigan.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

For most of January, 500mb ridge across western North America
has dominated the weather pattern with downstream troughing
noted across eastern North America. This pattern has led to
warmer conditions across the western United States with cold
across the east. In matter fact, the 500mb trough will deepen
enough to drive the 850mb 0C isotherm all the way south to
Miami and Key West, Florida Sunday morning (GFS/ECMWF models).
Back in Wisconsin, for the month temperatures have been averaging
2 to 5 degrees below normal. Temperatures during the forecast
period are going to warm up to seasonable cold category, possibly
reaching the upper 20s later in the week.

There are two systems to contend with during the period. The first
system is expected to impact the area Sunday afternoon and Sunday
night. The latest trends are to slow the eastern progression of
the snow as it makes it into eastern WI. Some guidance doesn't
have snow reaching Green Bay until mid-evening on Sunday.
Accumulations under an inch are expected across the entire area.
The NBM probabilities of an inch or greater of snow is only 10-25%
across central and north-central WI.

A strong clipper system is expected to move across the western
Great Lakes Thursday into Friday morning, with the greatest
impacts across northeast WI Thursday afternoon and evening at
the moment. Chance of snow are for now are set at 40-60%.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1022 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings persists late this evening as high
pressure builds south across the northern Plains. Warm advection
in northerly flow continues to support  MVFR clouds and scattered
snow showers/flurries, primarily across the lakeshore and north-
central Wisconsin. KRHI will see the lowest ceilings (low end
MVFR) through early morning.

As temperatures aloft moderate and drier air moves in from the
west, clouds and snow showers will gradually dissipate after
midnight. Expect a clearing trend to develop Saturday morning,
though timing remains uncertain due to persistent northerly flow.
MVFR ceilings will likely linger longest over north-central
Wisconsin (KRHI/KAUW/KCWA). Widespread VFR conditions are expected
for all terminals by mid-afternoon with clear skies forecast for
Saturday evening. Winds will remain northerly at 5-10 kts,
becoming light and variable after sunset.

Outlook...Light snow may bring MVFR/IFR conditions Sunday afternoon
and evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.........MPC
DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......MPC