NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 121723
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1123 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are expected through next week.
  Temperatures will likely (40-80% chance) hit 40 degrees by
  Friday and could hit 50 degrees (30-50% chance) south of highway
  10 on Monday.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected through early next week, with
  the best chance (50-60%) for widespread precipitation Tuesday
  night into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Ridging over the upper-Midwest will bring low impact weather to
the region through early next week. Periods of fog will be
possible this weekend as warmer air moves over the melting
snowpack.

Expect a more active pattern to develop during the early to middle
part of next week as a low pressure system emerges from the
Rockies over the Plains region. A seasonally warm moist (PWATS up
to 0.8") air mass will move over the region ahead of this
approaching low pressure system. This may lead to a more
impactful precipitation event late Tuesday into Wednesday.
However, there is still a large degree of uncertainty with
vertical temperature profiles as evidenced by the large spread in
snowfall percentiles in the NBM. This makes determining a dominate
precipitation type and subsequent snowfall amounts difficult for
this period.

Temperatures will begin to trend warmer than normal today with a
40-80% chance of highs above 40 degrees as soon as Friday and a
50- 90% chance by Sunday. Temperatures have trended a few degrees
cooler early next week, with only a 30-50% chance that areas
south of Highway 10 reach 50 degrees on Monday. The warming trend
will lead to a quickly melting snowpack and deteriorating ice
conditions, which does raise the concern for ice jams next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1113 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Fog potential and low stratus the main concern each night and
early morning through at least Sunday as mild temperatures will
lead to a melting snowpack. For tonight, the HREF has a 20-50%
probability of visibilities dropping to less than 3 miles, with
the highest probabilities across north-central from 08-13z Friday
thus confidence is only medium. Otherwise, VFR conditions should
prevail this afternoon through Friday afternoon outside the period
of low clouds and fog.

However, confidence is increasing for a more impactful fog
event Friday night into Saturday morning which shows up in
the numerical guidance. Probabilities of visibilities dropping
below 2 miles in fog is from 50-80% from 07z-14z Saturday.
The probabilities of visibilities dropping below 1/2 mile
are from 30-70%. With air temperatures below freezing, freezing
fog is a distinct possibility. Any fog should burn off between
14-16z Saturday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Eckberg