NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 060715
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
215 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures at or below normal for the next week. Cooler nights
  will likely warrant additional Frost headlines tonight, and
  potentially Thursday night.

- Only minor precipitation chances expected this week, with
  minimal impacts until at least Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Minimal changes to the forecast as the focus remains on overnight
lows and frost potential the next couple nights. Small precip
chances at times, most of which will be low impact.

Temperatures: Current Frost Advisory remains on track with
readings at 07Z in the 33 to 37 degree range at most places
affected. Temperatures will dip another couple degrees yet, and
then rise into the mid 40s to low 50s today. A similar setup is
expected tonight with no change in airmass, light to calm winds,
and some passing clouds. Therefore, expect another Frost Advisory
will be warranted. Will let the current headline expire before
issuing for tonight. Lows are forecast to be a few degrees warmer
Thursday night, making conditions right on the cusp of frost
potential. Central WI is most likely to see frost, with an ~10-20%
probability of reaching freezing. Starting Friday temperatures
trend closer to seasonal normals, with high in the low to mid 60s
for a couple days. Readings will continue to bounce AOB normal
into next week.

Precip: Upper low will spin northward across Hudson Bay the next
couple days, which will keep Wisconsin in northwest flow and send
a few shortwaves through the area. Moisture is lacking, but there
is enough forcing to generate a few scattered showers today,
primarily across northern WI. A few snowflakes could mix in as
well, but these would melt on contact. Any precip accumulations
would be a couple hundredths at best. Slightly higher potential
for a few showers Thursday, with NBM showing a 20-30% chance for
0.01" of precip (anything measurable).

A cold front moves across WI this weekend, bringing another
opportunity for light rain midday Saturday into Sunday morning. A
more organized system is currently progged to move through the
Upper Midwest during the Monday night/Tuesday time frame, bringing
potential for rain and thunder.

In between the light rain chances, brief periods of elevated fire
weather conditions will occur due to deep mixing, low RHs,
moderate winds, and increasing fuels.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Pesky mid and
high clouds will stream in at times tonight as satellite imagery
shows the daytime clouds have not dissipated. Any clearing tonight
will be short lived as additional clouds are expected to develop
during the day on Wednesday with daytime heating. Light winds
tonight will pick back up from the west later Wednesday morning at
10-20 kts, then diminish Wednesday evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ022-030-031-
035>040-045-048>050.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......Kurimski