NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 272023
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
323 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered snow showers through late this afternoon producing
  brief reductions in visibility and quick minor snow
  accumulations.

- Potential for thunderstorms and heavy rain late Monday through
  Tuesday, with low potential for minor snow and ice
  accumulations.

- Many rivers above bankfull into the weekend. Potential for at
  least minor flooding may increase next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Scattered Snow Showers through Late this Afternoon...This
afternoon's water vapor and radar imagery indicated a shortwave
overhead was producing scattered snow showers across the region.
Supported by surface observations, these snow showers were
producing brief bursts of snow with reduced visibilities down to 1
mile and northwest wind gusts up to 30 mph. These snow showers
are expected to maintain their intensity as they spread into east-
central WI this afternoon due to steep low-level lapse rates and
increased low-level instability. This is also being highlighted in
the snow squall parameter across the entire forecast area until
the snow showers come to an end with the loss of daytime heating
late this afternoon. Until then, localized impacts to travel are
expected with quick, sharp reductions in visibility to 1 mile or
less, northwest winds gusting to 30 mph, and minor snow
accumulations up to 0.5 inches. Cannot rule out the possibility of
issuing targeted SPSs for these conditions. The likelihood of
issuing Snow Squall Warnings is low due to the snow showers being
less organized and the lack of support for flash freeze
conditions.

Active Late Monday through Tuesday...After a quiet and warmer
weekend, the next feature of note is a low pressure system over the
central Plains with its warm front extending over the Midwest on
Monday. There is still uncertainty in how far north this warm front
will lift over the state/forecast area, which will play a role in
the precipitation and thunderstorm potential. However, there does
appear to be agreement with WAA driven precipitation over the area
Monday night, with elevated instability over 1000 J/kg, producing a
chance of thunderstorms. The bigger question is where the warm front
will be on Tuesday and if storms will become surface-based, and
potentially strong/severe. Additionally, PWATs will increase to 1-
1.25 inches throughout this time, raising the potential for heavy
rainfall and the concern of flooding due to it falling on an already
well-saturated ground from the recent/ongoing snowmelt. Will
continue to monitor the evolution of this system over the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR cigs prevailed across the east-central WI TAF sites this
afternoon, while scattered snow showers brought MVFR cigs and
brief reductions in vsby to 1SM across the central and north-
central WI TAF sites. The scattered snow showers and NW winds,
gusting to 25-30kts, will continue to impact the central and
north-central WI TAF sites through roughly 21-22z. Meanwhile, the
snow showers are expected to spread over the east-central WI TAF
sites, with the MVFR cigs and IFR vsbys roughly between 20z to
23z. During this time, NW gusts of 25-30kts are also anticipated.

The loss of daytime heating will cause the scattered snow showers
and gusty winds to come to an end/subside by 00z Sat, allowing
conditions to improve. Clear skies are expected overnight with mid
to high level clouds spreading over the area from the northwest
through Saturday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Several rivers will remain above bankfull through this weekend
due to the recent/ongoing melting snow along with the rain that
fell on Thursday. In addition, longer range ensemble river
probability forecasts point to a handful of rivers potentially
reaching minor flood stage next week due to the thunderstorm and
heavy rain potential Monday night into Tuesday. This would
especially be the case if the heavy rain occurs over northern
areas that will still have snow cover at that point. Currently,
the highest probabilities for at least minor flooding are showing
up at points along the Menominee River, Wolf River, Little Wolf
River, and the Embarrass River.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Kruk
HYDROLOGY......Kruk