NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 062324
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
524 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another fast moving round of snowfall will be possible Saturday
  night into early Sunday morning. Probability of exceeding an
  inch is 20-40% across far northeast Wisconsin and Door County.

- Cooler temperatures expected tonight and Saturday, followed by
  an above normal temperature trend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Mostly clear skies and quiet weather is expected tonight into
Saturday as high pressure tracks through the western Great Lakes
region. Temperatures will be below normal as lows range from
around 0 across the Fox Valley to the single digits below 0 across
central and north-central Wisconsin.

A quick moving shortwave will bring a round of snow to the region
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Most locations should only see
a dusting of snow from this system; however, far northeast
Wisconsin and Door County could see up to an inch with a 20-40%
chance of exceeding an inch according to the HREF ensembles. NBM
amounts and probabilities from version 5.0 better reflect the
expected forecast with higher amounts compared to the operational
4.3 as this usually struggles with the high POP low QPF events in
the winter.

Warmer weather is then expected next week, which will bring some
above normal temperatures into the region. High temperatures will
get into the 30s for most of the region and a few of the warmest
spots may even get to around 40. Another shot for some light
precipitation will be possible around the middle of next week but
the details such as p-type remain uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 524 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

High pressure building into the western Great Lakes will provide
good flying weather through much of the period. Lake effect cloud
streets off Lake Superior continue to impact north-central WI
early this evening with low-end VFR bases between 3000-4000 ft.
These clouds should dissipate by mid-evening as drier air arrives.
Otherwise, expect clear skies tonight with gusty north winds
subsiding.

VFR conditions prevail Saturday morning, though mid and high
clouds will increase through the day with bases generally
remaining above 9000 ft. Winds will become light and variable as
the ridge axis passes.

Confidence is high for VFR through 00z Sunday.

Outlook...The chance for light snow increases after 00z Sunday as
a quick-moving disturbance crosses the region. This system will
likely bring a period of MVFR/IFR conditions in light snow
Saturday night through Sunday morning, with the highest potential
for accumulation over far northeast Wisconsin and the Door
Peninsula.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......MPC