NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 231154
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
554 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clouds stubborn to clear out today with a few light snow showers
  and flurries. Cold with high temperatures mid teens to lower
  20s.

- Hazardous travel is possible at times on Tuesday as snow crosses
  the region. The greatest chances (> 70%) of seeing more than 2
  inches of accumulation will occur to the north of highway 8.

- Snow chances on Thursday have trended south. Chances of seeing
  over 1 inch of down to less than 10%.

- Friday still looking warm with >75% chance of highs over 40
  degrees, but turning colder again next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Near term through this afternoon...
Cold front dropping across area this morning, switching winds from
N to NNE. Stratus has been stubborn to leave, though downslope
northerly winds have scoured it out temporarily around Green Bay.
Went with more clouds today and kept mention of flurries. Still
could be lingering lake effect first thing this morning far
north-central. By late morning, expect clouds to try and thin
out some. Highs will be chilly today with mid teens north, upper
teens to lower 20s central WI, and lower 20s elsewhere. Average
highs should be in the lower 30s. Winds will not be as gusty as
Sunday.

Clipper brings snow and breezy winds on Tuesday...
Shortwave, low pressure system is getting organized over western
Canada this morning. Low deepens as it reaches northern Minnesota
Tuesday morning. Warm air advection, isentropic ascent snow stays
north through daybreak Tuesday. Some light snow showers, flurries
may occur late tonight north, but no measurable snow. As wave and
low dig, deepen over Upper Michigan, northern WI on Tuesday, will
see swath of light to moderate snow move across. Bulk of snow
falls from late Tuesday morning through late Tuesday afternoon. Up
to an inch of snow a good bet for most. Highest probabilities of
2+ inches of snow slated for far northern WI, generally north of
highway 8. Chances of 4+ inch of snow vary, but are mainly pinned
right along the border with Upper Michigan. The clipper brings
winds too, with soundings showing 25+ kts in mixed layer. Seems
biggest risk for snow, blowing snow issues would be over northern
WI where sfc temps stay in the mid to upper 20s. Still looks like
northern WI could eventually need an advisory for Tuesday.

Snow chances Thursday...
Decent shift to the south from the models and ensembles (especially
ECMWF), NBM for higher snow chances with the plains wave Wednesday
night into Thursday. Chance of seeing even 1" of snow down to
less than 10%. Hint of more northern stream wave moving through
though, so some snow is still possible, just doesn't look like
much in the way of accumulation.

Temperatures...
After the cold day today, readings bounce upward toward normal on
Tuesday. Temps back below normal Wednesday, then return toward
average on Thursday. If the system for Thursday is complete miss,
then could see highs nudging a few degrees warmer than current
forecast shows. Strong cyclone tracking across central Canada puts
the region within the warm sector Friday. NBM probabilities remain
very consistent of at least 75% chance of seeing highs all areas
in the 40s. May be windy too which fits that type of pattern. Even
right now, NBM data shows 30% chance of seeing gusts 35-40 mph
over eastern WI. Once the low and stronger cold front pass by, a
cooldown is in store for next weekend. Some spread in the high
temps on Saturday likely tied to timing of cold front, but 25th
to 75th percentile for high temp is tightening for Sunday and
show a high-end value at GRB of 22. Looking like a chilly start
to March.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 553 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

MVFR stratus with lingering flurries will finally give way to VFR
cigs this afternoon into tonight ahead of next system that brings
light snow to the area on Tuesday. There are signs in the nighttime
satellite product that the stratus may be trying to scatter out,
so an update may be needed before 18z TAFs once trends become more
apparent after daybreak this morning.

Latest guidance suggests that bulk of snow (IFR conditions) does
not move in until later Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.
The most accumulation of up to a few inches will occur over far
northern WI. At the least, airport snow removal operations will
be needed at RHI.

N-NW winds will be gusty to 25 kts this morning, then winds
diminish this afternoon into tonight. Low-level wind shear
develops late tonight over central and north-central WI,
expanding to rest of area on Tuesday morning.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......JLA