NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 011958
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
258 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather prevails through midweek. Chances for showers and
  storms return later this week and into the weekend.

- Above normal temperatures through the weekend. Highs mainly in
  the 80s.

- Elevated fire weather conditions this week due to low relative
  humidity and above normal temperatures. Near-critical conditions
  may develop Wednesday and Thursday when winds increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Precipitation Chances...A strong ridge of high pressure is expected
to dominate the weather pattern through midweek, keeping
conditions dry. The only minor wrinkle that some guidance is still
hinting at is for light scattered showers or sprinkles developing
this afternoon into this evening in central and north-central WI
from the interaction between a pocket of moisture and a lake
enhanced boundary shifting west. Satellite imagery was already
showing a cu field that developed in this area this afternoon. The
showers/sprinkles will now be dependent on if the lake enhanced
boundary can produce enough lift. Continued to keep low chance
PoPs (20% or less) for this potential in portions of central and
north- central WI through early this evening, elsewhere will
remain dry.

By Wednesday night, the upper-level ridge will flatten and the high
pressure will slide eastward as a shortwave trough approaches from
the northern Plains. Beginning Thursday, the pattern becomes
unsettled with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend. The finer details of timing and placement
remain uncertain, so it is too early to determine any severe
potential at this time.

Temperatures...High temperatures are expected to be about 5-10
degrees above normal through the weekend, with highs ranging from
the upper 70s into the 80s. Depending on cloud cover and precip
timing, temperatures may remain in the 80s through the weekend. With
dew points at tolerable levels throughout the week, the heat risk is
low (level 1 out of 4), which primarily impacts those who are
extremely sensitive to heat and without cooling/hydration.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with high
clouds across central and portions of east-central WI through this
evening. A SCT/BKN cu field has also developed in portions of
central and north-central WI this afternoon with cloud bases as
low as 4000 ft AGL. Some high-res models indicate there could be a
light shower falling from this cloud deck, but confidence was not
high enough to include in any of the central or north-central WI
TAF sites as they would not be impactful. Skies become clear by
06z Tue.

This morning's light and variable winds are expected to become
east/northeast and increase this afternoon as a boundary moves
west across the region into this evening, reaching AUW/CWA/RHI
around 01z Tue. Gusts to around 15 kts are possible. Light
easterly winds will prevail overnight, increasing to 7 kts Tuesday
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Until a widespread wetting rain occurs, elevated fire weather
conditions will continue through much of this week as afternoon
RHs will routinely drop to 20 to 30% or lower with temperatures in
the 70s/80s. Despite green up progressing and/or completing, fuel
input from fire partners points to concern where recent dryness
persists, any days with increasing winds could allow the fire
weather potential to rise to near-critical. The greatest potential
appears to be Wednesday and Thursday as the lower RH values could
coincide with increasing gradient winds as the prevailing high
pressure exits east and a shortwave/trough approaches from the
northern Plains.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Kruk
FIRE WEATHER...Kruk