NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 181156
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
556 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing precipitation this morning, with anything from freezing
  rain in the north to thunder in the south. Expect a variety of
  precip types to continue through mid to late morning, with a
  window for a quick burst of heavier snow near the U.P. border
  after 12Z.

- Snow is possible area-wide late Thursday into Friday, with a
  30-60% probability of at least 2" of snow north and west of the
  Fox Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 442 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Ongoing precipitation across most of the forecast area early this
morning, with precip ranging from freezing rain in northern
Wisconsin, to rain and even some thunder in parts of central WI
including Wisconsin Rapids, Wautoma, and Waupaca. Hard to gauge
exactly how much snow/ice has fallen across the north so far with
limited obs available at this hour. Call to Florence County
estimates about 3 inches of snow so far, and slippery and slushy
road conditions. A little farther south, one webcam near
Athelstane (Marinette County) shows there has been some precip,
with some minor accumulation of maybe a couple tenths on an
elevated board. Other calls around northern WI indicate some
slippery spots on roads, but no major accumulations.

Going forward, another band of strong fgen (currently associated
with the precip band containing lightning) will pivot northeast
over the next few hours. This will lead to moderate precip moving
through from SW to NE. Warmer temps continue to support rain for
much of the area, with the focus for mixed precip north of Hwy 8.
Forecast soundings show some cooling along with increased
moisture in the DGZ between ~12-16Z across the far north which
means there is still potential for a quick additional 1 to 4
inches of snow/sleet. Models show the highest amounts right along
the U.P. border, with some outputs even closer to 6 inches. Strong
dynamics would support isolated amounts this high, but expect this
to be isolated. The majority of northern WI will still be in the
half to 2 inch range. Strongest forcing departs mid- morning, with
the best moisture getting stripped away, too, so ending with a
little icing from freezing rain.

Low remains to the northwest this afternoon and Thursday, which
will result in continued light/slow snow accumulations across the
north this afternoon and overnight. Additional accumulations of a
couple tenths up to 1 inch are forecast. The main impact will be a
slower return to dry road conditions, especially on secondary or
untreated roads.

Next system is a Colorado low moving from the Four Corners late
today to the western Great Lakes by Friday morning. Still
differences in system track, resulting in quite the spread of
potential snowfall totals. Across central and north-central WI
10th percentile amounts are near zero, while 90th percentile
amounts range from 6 to 10 inches. Have slightly higher
confidence in mostly rain across the Fox Valley and east-central
WI, but 90th percentile amounts are still 1 to 2 inches. Stuck
with a mean forecast for now with central and north-central WI
mostly in the 2 to 5 inch range, but there is still time for this
system to pivot either way and forecast snow amounts to go up or
down.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 556 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

A variety of precip types across the area early this morning, with
mixed snow and possibly some sleet in the north, and rain across
the south. Low clouds and reduced vsbys accompany the precip,
creating IFR/LIFR conditions area wide. Low clouds and precip
remain through the morning, with improvements to MVFR/VFR across
central and east-central WI this afternoon. Farther north IFR
conditions will likely remain. Conditions drop again this evening
and overnight with light snow and low clouds across central and
north-central WI. The Fox Valley and east-central WI will likely
remain VFR.

LLWS continues for another couple hours this morning, then
subsides. East wind gusts up to 30 kts also persist through the
morning, then winds gradually veer to the south and lower.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ005-010>013-
019-021.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......KLJ