NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 170401
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1101 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
and new information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Have allowed the Winter Weather Advisory for Door County, though
patchy blowing and drifting will likely continue into the
overnight. The Gale Warning on Lake Michigan was also downgraded
to a Small Craft Advisory, as Northport gusts had dropped below
35 kts.

UPDATE
Issued at 918 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Decreasing winds and increasing vsbys across northern Door County
indicate that blizzard conditions have waned, so have downgraded
to a Winter Weather Advisory to cover any lingering
blowing/drifting snow for the rest of the evening. Allowed the
Winter Weather Advisories to expire in the Fox Valley and other
lakeshore counties at 9 pm, as wind gusts have generally dropped
below 30 mph and vsby restrictions are no longer being seen in
area observations.

UPDATE
Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Strong winds gusting to 45 mph across northern Door County will
likely produce blizzard conditions there for a few more hours. Winds
will continue to gradually subside across the rest of the forecast
area during the early to mid evening, resulting in less blowing
and drifting snow. It is likely that secondary roads will remain
drifted over in spots tonight, so motorists are cautioned to check
road reports before traveling. The current headlines and headline
timing reflect these thoughts, and the WSW statement will be
updated as headlines drop off.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The historic winter storm will come to an end this evening as
  winds snow subside. Slick conditions are still possible for the
  afternoon/evening commute across northeast WI due to blowing
  snow.

- Below zero wind chills will be possible on Monday, with
  temperatures moderating back to near normal throughout the week.

- There is a 40-80% chance of light snow Tuesday night into
  Wednesday. Snowfall of an inch or so is possible.

- Temperatures returning to near normal levels will lead to
  snowmelt and will result in increased flows and rising levels.
  It is possible that several rivers may reach bankfull or minor
  flood stage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Historical snowstorm coming to an end this afternoon and evening,
before providing Green Bay with the 2nd biggest snowstorm on
record at 26.1 inches as of 1 pm. Totals could go a few tenths
higher with the evening observation.

Calls to local sheriff departments indicated road conditions were
not great due to the snow and blowing snow. With this in mind,
will extend a Winter Weather Advisory for the afternoon and
evening commute across northeast WI. Clouds and winds will be on
the decrease through the night, with very cold temperatures
for the middle of March with lows in the single digits above and
below zero. Wind chill readings down to zero to 15 below should
be expected Tuesday morning.

Tranquil conditions expected Tuesday as the next clipper system
approaches from the west. This system will bring a 40-80% chance
of light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. Snowfall totals around
an inch or less are expected. Otherwise, no significant weather
is expected through next weekend. Temperatures will remain well
below normal on Tuesday with more typical spring like temperatures
Wednesday into the weekend. Snow melt later this week will result
increasing fast flows and rising river levels. Will continue to
monitor rivers to see if a few of them reach at least bankfull if
not minor flood stage.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Northwest winds will continue to subside overnight, with patchy
blowing and drifting in eastern WI tapering off. Aside from lake-
effect snow showers and associated MVFR/IFR conditions in NC WI,
dry conditions and VFR flight conditions should prevail overnight
through Tuesday afternoon. SCT-BKN stratocumulus will still impact
the region at times, but should mainly be in the 3500-4000 ft AGL
range.

A clipper low pressure system will bring light snow to the
forecast area Tuesday night. The snow should reach CWA/AUW by
around 02z/Wed, and RHI/GRB/ATW/MTW between 04z-06z/Wed. Vsbys
will drop to MVFR/IFR once the steadier snow arrives.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.........Kieckbusch
DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch