NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 231101
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
601 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some rivers will remain at bankfull or even reach minor flood
  stage within the next couple days.

- Temperatures will moderate the next few days, rising to above
  normal again from Tuesday to Thursday.

- A wintry mix of precipitation is possible during the middle of
  of the work week, especially Wednesday night into Thursday.

- Pleasant weekend expected, with dry conditions and mild
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Partly to mostly clouds skies prevailed across the region early
this morning as a 1030 mb high pressure system across the upper
Mississippi Valley was slowly making its way toward the western
Great Lakes region. This high will track through the western Great
Lakes today, then slide off to the east tonight toward the eastern
Great Lakes. The high will clear out the skies across the area
today, providing mostly sunny skies across the region; however,
highs will only range from around 40 across the north with middle
40s across central Wisconsin as we are on the cool side of the
high.

As the high slides off to the east tonight, some warm air
advection will cause an increase in clouds along with a small
chance (10-20%) for light precipitation across the far north and
northern Door County.

Temperatures will climb on Tuesday as we get on the warm side of
the departing high and winds veer to the southwest. Highs on
Tuesday are expected to range from the upper 40s across the north
to the lower 50s west of the Fox Valley. A weak cold front will
approach from the north on Tuesday, but stall out over the
northern Great Lakes region.

Another cold front will take aim for the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This cold front will also get hung up across the
north with another small chance (10-20%) for light precipitation
across the same region, north-central Wisconsin and northern Door
County. The best moisture will be north of the Wisconsin border,
so even if precipitation does fall its impact will be de minimis.
Temperatures climb even further on Wednesday, with highs in the
50s expected away from the lakeshore and around 60 degrees west of
the Fox Valley.

A low pressure system developing across the northern Plains
Wednesday night and Thursday will bring a better chance (40-50%)
for widespread precipitation to the area as a cold front pushes
through the region. Precipitation type will mainly be rain across
central and east-central Wisconsin, with a wintry mix expected
across northern Wisconsin. Temperatures will range from the 40s
across the north on Thursday given the earlier arrival of the cold
front, as highs still reach the upper 50s to around 60 west of the
Fox Valley with a later arrival of the front.

A large area of high pressure will then build in across the
northern CONUS at the end of the week then sink southeast towards
the middle Atlantic states late in the weekend. This high will
provide a period of dry weather to the area through the weekend.
Temperatures will initially cool behind the cold front on Friday,
then warm back to above normal levels by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

SCT-BKN clouds this morning should eventually dissipate as high
pressure settles in across the western Great Lakes. Bases are
generally VFR; however, some MVFR bases were noted along the Lake
Michigan shoreline.

Later today, a fair weather CU field with bases at around 4 to 5k
ft may develop over the forecast area later this morning and this
afternoon. High clouds will then increase tonight, causing CIGs
to transition from SCT to BKN overnight with bases around 10k ft.

Northwest winds gradually back to south/southwesterly this
afternoon, gusting between 10 and 15 knots. Increasing winds just
off the surface will cause LLWS to develop across central and
north-central Wisconsin late this evening and overnight with
southwest winds of 35-40 knots at 2k ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Several rivers have recently risen above bankfull, including the
Wisconsin, Spirit, Big Rib, East and Yellow rivers. Forecasts
indicate that the Wolf River should reach bankfull this afternoon.
At this point, the greatest threat of minor flooding appears to
be on the Yellow River near Babcock, as the current river stage is
right around flood stage; however, the river appears to have
crested or will soon so any foray into minor flood stage would be
brief. Although a Flood Warning or two (for minor flooding) may
become necessary, no significant flooding is anticipated at this
time.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski
HYDROLOGY......Kurimski