NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 061843
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
143 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered snow showers through this evening. Some of the snow
  showers may be heavy and cause brief visibility reductions/minor
  travel impacts.

- Next potential for precipitation Tuesday night through Wednesday
  night. Probabilities for at least 0.50 inch of liquid
  precipitation 20-50%.

- Wintry precipitation expected late Tuesday night into Wednesday
  morning. Probabilities of 0.5 inch or more of snow 20-40% with
  a 10-30% probability of a glaze of ice, mainly north and west of
  the Fox Valley.

- Potential is increasing for additional heavier precipitation
  late this weekend into early next week. Probabilities for at
  least 1 inch of rain between 50-70%.

- Minor flooding will continue along some rivers this week.
  Additional precipitation may exacerbate flooding in some areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Modest instability with MUCAPEs around 200 J/kg along with steep
0-3km lapse rates of 7 to 9 C/km will continue to provide ideal
conditions for scattered to numerous snow showers through early
this evening until the sun sets. This will cause conditions to go
from mostly sunny to overcast with gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph
and restricted visibilities below one half of a mile at times.
These rapid reductions in visibility will impact the evening
commute across areas that receive heavier snow showers. Once the
sun sets, these showers should come to an end with the loss of
daytime heating as instability and lapse rates fall. Any snowfall
accumulations will be light, with at most a few tenths of an inch,
with some locations across Vilas County receiving upwards of
around an inch due to additional moisture from Lake Superior.

High pressure building in across the western Great Lakes will
bring a period of quiet weather overnight into Tuesday along with
well below normal temperatures.

The active pattern commences late Tuesday night as the high
drifts off to the east, allowing a low pressure system tracking
along southern Canada to impact the region. Southerly flow and
warm air advection will allow temperatures to rise during the
middle of the week along with a period of precipitation.
Precipitation will likely be a wintry mix late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning until sufficient warm air changes it over to all
rain late Wednesday morning into Wednesday night.

Current NBM probabilities indicate there will be a good amount of
moisture associated with this system as probabilities of a half
inch or more of liquid will be 20-50%. The best chance for wintry
precipitation will be north and west of the Fox Valley with
probabilities for a half inch or more of snow of 20-40% with a
10-30% chance for at least a glaze of ice.

High pressure will be dominant over much of the area on Friday,
but there are indications of the southern portions of the forecast
area seeing some precip from a system tracking south of the area.
An unsettled pattern looks to set up late this weekend into early
next week, with the potential for heavier precipitation to impact
the region. NBM probabilities for 1 inch of rain or more are still
a steady 50-70%, which would exacerbate any ongoing flooding
across the region. Given the saturated conditions and elevated
river levels, this will be a period to watch.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Scattered snow showers will continue into early this evening.
Conditions will generally be MVFR; however there will be breaks in
the clouds at times with VFR conditions as well as IFR/LIFR
conditions within the heavier snow showers. Flying conditions will
improve to VFR as the snow showers come to an end later this
evening.

Northwest winds will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty winds
are expected through this evening, peaking early this afternoon,
with gusts of 20 to 25 kts. However, within the heavier snow
showers, winds may gust up to 35 kts. Winds will subside below 10
kts late this evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Multiple rivers remain at minor flood stage due to recent runoff.
The only river that will continue to rise into midweek will be the
Wolf River at Shiocton. No rivers are forecast to reach moderate
flood stage this week. The saturated conditions along with multiple
chances for widespread precipitation beginning Tue/Wed and lasting
through this weekend into early next week will result in some rivers
staying nearly steady, before they begin rising again this weekend
into early next week when potential for heavier precipitation is
expected due to an open Gulf and multiple stronger systems. At this
point, it appears a more substantial flooding threat could develop.
At the least, it appears multiple rivers could see minor flooding.
There will also be a renewed potential for areal flooding
(especially in poor drainage and low-lying areas) even away
from where the river flooding occurs.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski
HYDROLOGY......JLA