NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 170931
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
431 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind chills of 10 to 20 below zero are expected this morning,
  with temperatures moderating back to near normal throughout the
  week.

- There is a 40-80% chance of light snow tonight into Wednesday.
  Snowfall of an inch or so is possible, especially across central
  Wisconsin.

- Temperatures returning to near normal levels will lead to
  snowmelt and will result in increased flows and rising levels.
  It is possible that several rivers may reach bankfull or minor
  flood stage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Cold temperatures and light winds have allowed wind chills to fall
into the single digits below zero this morning as the region
continues to dig out from the historic snowstorm. Wind chills
could bottom out in the 10 to 20 below zero range this morning as
winds pick up a bit after sunrise while ambient temperatures are
still on the cool side.

Other than some light snow across far north-central Wisconsin,
quiet weather is expected across the region today as high
temperatures rebound to around 20 degrees by this afternoon.

A clipper system will then track through the region tonight into
Wednesday, bringing a swath of light snow to the region. The best
chance (60-90%) will be across central and east-central Wisconsin
with lesser chances (30-50%) across north-central Wisconsin.
Snowfall amounts will be light, generally less than an inch, with
an inch or two possible across central Wisconsin.

Another quick moving clipper system will bring the chance (20-40%) for
a rain/snow mix Wednesday night into Thursday as temperatures
moderate into the 30s and 40s. Yet another clipper system will
bring the chance (10-30%) for mainly rain across the northern half
of the region Thursday night into Friday. A low pressure system
approaching from the Plains could bring additional chances
(20-30%) for a wintry mix to the region this upcoming weekend.
These systems look to be on the light side with respect to QPF.

As temperatures warm throughout the week, snow melt will result
in increasing fast flows and rising river levels. At this time
some rivers could reach bankfull; however, flooding is not yet
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 430 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Aside from lake-effect snow showers and associated MVFR
conditions in north-central Wisconsin, dry conditions and VFR
flight conditions should prevail through this afternoon. SCT-BKN
stratocumulus will still impact the region at times, but should
mainly be in the 3500-4000 ft AGL range.

A clipper low pressure system will bring light snow to the
forecast area tonight. The snow should reach CWA/AUW by around
02Z/Wed, and RHI/GRB/ATW/MTW between 04Z-06Z/Wed. VSBYs will drop
to MVFR/IFR once the steadier snow arrives.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski