NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 231948
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
148 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous travel is possible at times on Tuesday as snow crosses
  the region. The greatest chances (> 70%) of seeing more than 2
  inches of accumulation will occur to the north of highway 8 and
  northern Door County. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.

- Friday still looking warm with >75% chance of highs over 40
  degrees, but turning colder again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

A clipper system will bring a short period of intense snow to the
region on Tuesday as it tracks through the northwestern Great
Lakes. The best moisture and dynamics across our region will be
north of a line from Tomahawk to Sturgeon Bay, where NBM
probabilities of exceeding 2 inches are 40-80%, late Tuesday
morning into late Tuesday afternoon. There is a sliver of real
estate across the far north where probabilities of exceeding 4
inches is a respectable 30-40%. Although the window for snow will
be fairly brief, 3 to 6 hours, the snowfall amounts during this
window are high enough (2-4 inches) to justify a Winter Weather
Advisory across the far north on Tuesday. In addition to the
snowfall, gusty south to southwest winds could cause some blowing
and drifting snow, especially across Door County where the highest
winds will coincide with the higher snowfall amounts.

The next system that could affect the region continues its
southward trend late in the week, where NBM probabilities of
exceeding an inch of snow on Thursday have plummeted to around
10%. While the southern stream system has trended south, it has
opened the door for a northern stream system to track through the
region during that same time period. This would bring the
possibility for a widespread dusting to a few tenths of an inch
snowfall accumulation to the region (20-30% of exceeding 0.1
inch).

Temperatures take a bit of a roller coaster ride during the next
week. After a cold night tonight, temperatures bounce upward
toward normal on Tuesday trend back below normal Wednesday, then
return toward average on Thursday. If the system for Thursday is
a complete miss, then highs could trend a few degrees warmer than
the current forecast shows. A strong cyclone tracking across
central Canada puts the region within the warm sector Friday. NBM
probabilities remain very consistent of at least 75% chance of
seeing highs across all areas in the 40s. Once the low and
stronger cold front pass by, a cooldown is in store for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Mostly sunny skies were in place across much of the region, with a
patch of MVFR stratus and flurries across far north-central and
eastern Wisconsin. Conditions will eventually become VFR across
the rest of the area this afternoon and tonight ahead of the next
system that will bring light snow to the area on Tuesday.

Latest guidance suggests that bulk of snow (IFR conditions) does
not move in until later Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.
The most accumulation of up to a few inches will occur over far
northern WI. At the least, airport snow removal operations will
be needed at KRHI.

Northerly winds have subsided to 10 knots or less across much of
the area, with some gusts to 20-25 knots across far eastern
Wisconsin and the lakeshore. Winds will continue diminishing this
afternoon into tonight. LLWS is expected to develop late tonight
over central and north-central WI, expanding to rest of area on
Tuesday morning.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM CST Tuesday for WIZ005.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM CST Tuesday for WIZ011-
012.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM CST Tuesday for
WIZ013.

Winter Weather Advisory from noon to 6 PM CST Tuesday for WIZ022.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski