NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 300600
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
100 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather prevails through the middle of next week.

- Temperatures near normal today followed by above normal
  temperatures through next week, with highs mostly in the 80s.

- Elevated fire weather conditions into next week due to low
  relative humidity. Concern rises further next week when winds
  increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

High pressure and an upper level omega blocking pattern will
dominate the weather for much of the upcoming week, which will
keep the region dry. A backdoor cold front moving through early
this morning will be noted only by a shift in wind direction and
high temperatures this afternoon a solid 10 degrees cooler than
yesterday. Otherwise, this high will keep attempted intrusions of
frontal boundaries and any subsequent rain mostly at bay as these
systems approach from the west and are halted to the west by the
aforementioned high pressure system.

The pattern begins to shift late next week as the ridge flattens
out across the central CONUS, allowing a trough tracking through
the northern Plains to make its way through the western Great
Lakes on Thursday with another reinforcing system on its heels on
Friday. These systems will bring our first decent chance for rain
(30-55%) in over a week to the region. While the severe weather
potential this far out is a bit difficult to assess, early
indications are MUCAPEs are expected to be 1000 J/kg or less on
Friday.

Temperatures...Highs today behind the backdoor cold front are only
expected to be in the 70s across much of the region, with 60s near
the lakeshore given the still cool Lake Michigan waters. Highs
slowly recover into the 80s early in the work week, with notable
warming during the middle to late part of next week on the
backside of the departing high pressure system with highs in the
middle to upper 80s. Temperatures will continue to be cooler near
Lake Michigan during this period.

Fire weather...Elevated fire weather conditions will continue
through much of next week until a widespread wetting rain occurs.
Despite green up progressing, fuel input from fire partners
points to concern that where recent dryness persists, any days
with increasing winds could allow the fire weather potential to
rise. The best potential could be the middle to late part of next
week as the lower RH values could link up with increasing
gradient winds as the high pressure over the region this weekend
exits east and trough approaches from the northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Scattered high
based clouds (12-25 kft) will filter over the region tonight as a
backdoor cold front sags across the region. Scatterd clouds will
linger through Saturday, but expect plenty of sunshine as well.

Winds will be light and variable tonight as the aforementioned front
sags to the southwest. Winds then become mainly E-NE early Saturday.
Though winds stay 10 kts or less on Saturday, gusts could reach 15
kts.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......GK