NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 010605
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
105 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather prevails through midweek. Chances for showers
  and storms return later this week and into the weekend.

- Above normal temperatures through the weekend. Highs mainly in
  the 80s.

- Elevated fire weather conditions this week due to low relative
  humidity and above normal temperatures. Near-critical conditions
  may develop Thursday when winds increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Precipitation Chances...A strong ridge of high pressure is
expected to dominate the weather pattern through at least midweek,
keeping conditions dry. There are two minor wrinkles that some
guidance is indicating could bring very light scattered rain
showers or sprinkles. The first being early this morning with a
subtle shift of the persistent stationary moisture to the
southwest of the region moving into the southwest portion of the
forecast area in central Wisconsin. The second being a lake
enhanced backdoor cold front shifting west across the area this
afternoon/evening that may interact with a pocket of moisture in
central and north-central Wisconsin. However, much of the area is
expected to remain dry with the prevailing high pressure and
abundant dry air in place across the region.

By Wednesday night, the upper-level ridge will flatten and the
high pressure will slide eastward as a shortwave trough
approaches from the northern Plains. Beginning Thursday, the
pattern becomes unsettled with multiple chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend. Since there are still some
timing issues, it is too early to determine any severe potential
at this time.

Temperatures...High temperatures are expected to be about 5-
10 degrees above normal early this week, with highs ranging from
the upper 70s into the 80s. Temperatures look to peak around
Thursday, with highs potentially climbing into the upper 80s, but
this will depend on cloud cover and precip timing. There is also
some potential for temperatures to climb into the low 90s, but
probabilities are low (30% or lower). With dew points at tolerable
levels throughout the week, the heat risk is low (level 1 out of
4), which primarily impacts those who are extremely sensitive to
heat and without cooling/hydration.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high clouds
continue to filter over the region. Light and variable winds are
expected overnight with winds then turning east/southeast Monday
morning. A backdoor cold front will begin to move across the region
Monday afternoon with winds behind the front turning northeasterly
and gusting up to 15kts.

There are subtle indications for patchy fog sometime between 07z-12z
tonight, mainly across northern WI where mostly clear skies will
persist for much of the night. However, confidence is low in fog
affecting any TAF sites, but if it were to develop, the greatest
potential would be be across northern WI (RHI).

Radar returns from western WI also show a band of light showers
extending from KMSP to KDLL and slowly moving northeast late this
evening. Expectation is for these showers to die out as they
encounter drier air in central WI, however, there is a low 10%
chance that these showers get into Wood Co. early early this
morning. Even if any showers do reach the forecast area expect
aviation impacts to be minimal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Until a widespread wetting rain occurs, elevated fire weather
conditions will continue through much of this week as afternoon
RHs will routinely drop to 20 to 30% or lower with temperatures in
the 70s/80s. Despite green up progressing and/or completing, fuel
input from fire partners points to concern where recent dryness
persists, any days with increasing winds could allow the fire
weather potential to rise to near-critical. The greatest potential
appears to be Thursday as the lower RH values could coincide with
increasing gradient winds as the prevailing high pressure exits
east and a shortwave/trough approaches from the northern Plains.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......GK
FIRE WEATHER...Kurimski