NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 251124
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
524 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 50-60% for at least a dusting of snow north of HWY 29 Thursday.
  Addtioanl chance for light snow across central and east-central
  WI this weekend.

- Friday will be the warmest day this week with >80% chance of
  highs over 40 degrees regionwide. Turning colder again this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Generally low-impact weather is expected for the remainder of the
week into this weekend. Lingering light LES continues across far
north-central WI early this morning which may bring an addtioanl few
tenths to parts of Vilas Co. Otherwise scattered flurries have
developed across parts of western and central WI as strong CAA and
steeper mid-level lapse rates overspread the region. Flurry
activity may continue through mid-morning, however, don't expect any
measurable accumulations.

Next chance for light snow comes Thursday as a subtle short-wave and
area of isentropic lift spread over northern WI. With fairly dry
moisture profiles this looks like a high Pop/low QPF type event.
Probabilistic guidance also supports this with 50-60% chances for at
least a dusting north of HWY 29, but less than a 10% for greater
than 1" at any location. Impacts should be limited to just a few
slick spots on any untreated roads. Global ensembles also point
toward another round of light snow this weekend as another short-
waves moves through the upper Midwest. Feature to watch with this
system will be a narrow f-gen band currently forecast set up along
the I-94 corridor, however, with a slight northward shift our
souther counties could be looking at a 20-30% for over 2" of snow
Saturday.

Finally, minimal changes to the Friday temperature forecast.
Guidance remains in alignment in bringing our neck of the woods
well into the warm sector, which would bring a nice warm up to the
region. NBM probabilities remain very consistent of at least 80%
chance of seeing highs across all areas in the 40s. This warmth
will be relatively short-lived however, as cooler air quickly
follows during the weekend, pushing highs back towards the 20s for
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 524 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

MVFR status that developed overnight is quickly eroding across the
region this morning. Expect VFR conditions to develop at all TAF
sites this morning. Where status is still in place snow flurries
will be possible this morning with brief periods of MVFR vsbys.
However, confidence in vsby restrictions occurring at any individual
TAF site is too low to include in the 12Z TAFs. Mostly clear skies
expected this afternoon leaving VFR conditions for the remainder of
the day. Beyond the TAF period the next round snow and lower cigs is
expected to move across the region during the day Thursday.

West to northwest winds will continue to gust near 20kts this
morning. Winds will then ease this afternoon to around 10 knots.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......GK