NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 070624
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
124 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be at or below normal into next week. Another
  Frost Advisory may be needed tonight.

- Spotty showers in the north today (15-30% probability). Any
  accumulations would be less than one-tenth of an inch.

- Medium precip potential on Saturday and Tuesday. Impacts look
  minor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Temps/Frost: Cloud cover was keeping temperatures slightly warmer
than forecast early tonight, with readings at 06Z in the upper
30s to lower 40s. Satellite imagery shows clouds across central
and east- central WI dissipating, so expect temperatures will
still drop into the lower to middle 30s over the next couple
hours. Current Frost Advisory remains in effect until 8AM. For
tonight/Friday morning, low temperatures have trended a couple
degrees cooler, with lows right around freezing in central WI,
and in the middle 30s from the Fox Valley to the lakeshore.
Another Frost Advisory may be needed tonight, with NBM
probabilities showing a 20-70% chance of getting to 36 degrees or
colder west of Fox Valley.

Temperatures will be closer to seasonal normals on Friday, with
highs in the lower 60s for most. From there, daily highs will
continue to bounce between near and below normal through the
weekend and into next week.

Precipitation: A shortwave brushes across northern WI this
afternoon, which is farther north than previous indications. PoPs
have been pulled back across the southern forecast area, but
remain in the 15-30% range across northern WI during the afternoon
and early evening. Still not much moisture to work with, so any
precipitation would be scattered or spotty showers, with only a
few hundredths of QPF.

Dry weather is expected Friday, followed by a cold front moving
from northwest to southeast across WI on Saturday. This front has
sped up from previous runs, with the highest rain probabilities
(~20-45%) in the morning, and then decreasing through the
afternoon. Once again, moisture is lacking, making any
accumulations light.

A more organized system is on track to move through the Upper
Midwest early next week, impacting Wisconsin on Tuesday. This is
the greatest opportunity to see rain over the next week.

In between the light rain chances, brief periods of elevated fire
weather conditions will occur due to deep mixing, low RHs,
moderate winds, and increasing fuels.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Recent model
trends are drier this run, with mainly dry conditions or very
small (10-20%) chances for showers across central and east-central
Wisconsin on Thursday. Given these trends will take out the PROB30
for the southern TAF sites. Further north and later in the day a
potent shortwave tracks through northern Wisconsin with a bit
better moisture. Therefore, will keep the PROB30 at KRHI given the
better chances (30%) for light rain showers across this area
during the afternoon. Winds will generally be light through early
Thursday morning, then increase later Thursday morning into the
afternoon at 10-15 knots, decreasing again Thursday evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ022-030-031-
035>040-045-048>050.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......Kurimski