NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 272354
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
654 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms, generally
  along and south of line from Marshfield to Green Bay to Kewaunee
  through early evening. The main risk would be strong damaging
  winds and hail.

- Moderate to heavy rain with embedded storms will come to an end
  tonight. Rainfall amounts of 0.25-1.00" are expected across
  much of the area.

- Rivers are expected to rise this week after a round of moderate
  to heavy rain today. River flooding continues at some locations
  on the Menominee, Wolf and Fox Rivers.

- Mainly dry conditions with temperatures at or slightly below
  normal will continue into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A band of showers moved into central and northeast WI this
afternoon. The areal coverage of showers were decreasing based on
radar. The back edge of the rain was drying up, a signal that
there could be a period of gusty (wake low) winds after the
showers moved out of the area. This was the case as Wisconsin
Rapids gusted to 44 mph and Oshkosh 41 mph.

This round of showers, gusty cool southeast winds and little
sunshine in advance of the cold front later tonight gives for
very low confidence in severe storms. Looking into Iowa,
storms formed along and ahead of the cold where surface based
CAPEs of 1,000-2,000 J/KG were noted. However, radar trends
indicated the storms are struggling. The latest Storm
Prediction Center Day 1 Outlook has shifted the Marginal Risk
southward from this morning, now along and south of a Mosinee
to Green Bay to Kewaunee line. Based on the latest trends,
the risk of severe weather is very low.

After the front passes across the area this evening, isolated to
scattered showers will linger into early Tuesday morning before
ending by sunrise. Except for a small chance of rain Wednesday,
fairly tranquil conditions should prevail into the weekend.
with temperatures at or below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

While scattered rain showers developed over east-central WI this
evening, additional showers and thunderstorms were approaching
central WI. Otherwise, IFR or MVFR cigs were prevailing at most
locations. The showers and thunderstorms approaching central WI
are progged to track east and impact the AUW and CWA TAF sites.
Uncertain if they will continue at the east-central WI TAF sites,
so have included PROB30 groups for these sites. Meanwhile, showers
are expected at the RHI TAF site and will linger the longest,
ending around 10z Tue. Showers elsewhere will end by 06z Tue.
Following the showers, IFR and MVFR cigs are expected to continue
through at least 17z Tue before becoming SCT.

The gusty southeasterly winds will gradually turn westerly after
06z Tue, as the cold front moves across the area. The westerly
winds will gust to 20 to 30 kts through midday Tuesday, subsiding
Tuesday afternoon/evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Minor flooding continues on several rivers, namely the Wolf,
Menominee, and the Fox River at Oshkosh. Widespread rainfall
should end up a little lower than expected, generally between
0.25-1.00".

Per RFC forecasts and HEFS guidance, several points along the
Menominee River could return to moderate flood stage; however,
probabilities of reaching moderate have fallen to less than 10%.

The Wolf River is expected to stay below moderate flood stage
during this event, with some points rising back to minor flood
stage. Levels on the Lake Winnebago system continue to rise due
to inflow from the Wolf and Fox Rivers, with minor flooding
already occurring from Lake Poygan to Winnebago and minor
flooding forecast to occur through the weekend. Those living near
rivers or streams should continue to monitor the latest Flood
Warnings and statements from the National Weather Service in
Green Bay.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......Kruk
HYDROLOGY......Eckberg