NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 241921
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
221 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Intermittent chances for rain (20-40%) and thunderstorms are
  forecast through Wednesday. The risk for organized heavier rain
  or severe weather is low.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the week, with
  80s forecast for Memorial Day, Tuesday, and Wednesday. A few
  spots may approach or reach 90 on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Daytime cu popping up this afternoon, otherwise dry and
seasonable weather with temperatures at 19Z in the upper 60s to
mid 70s away from Lake Michigan (closer to 60 degrees near the
lake). Expect temps to rise a few more degrees throughout the
afternoon.

Precipitation: Clouds clear early this evening, followed by mid
clouds moving in from the west generated by some weak warm
advection. Additionally, 850mb jet increases late tonight which
may provide enough forcing to generate some widely scattered
showers. CAMs remain mixed on this potential, and moisture is also
limited. Continued to carry mainly slight chance PoPs (15-25%)
from late tonight into Monday. There are also small isolated
thunder chances (~15%) with 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, but severe
storms are not expected.

Continue to see small precipitation potential both Tuesday and
Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon and early evenings, from
weak features and daytime heated. Isolated, non-severe
thunderstorms are also possible (~15-20% probability) with some
instability present.

Surface high pressure dominates the area from Thursday through
next weekend which will result in little to no precipitation.

Temperatures...Readings will trend above normal for the next week,
peaking on Tuesday with highs the 80s to possibly low 90s. NBM
shows a 50-70% probability for parts of central into northeast WI
reaching or exceeding 90 degrees. While dew points will be
tolerable in the 50s to low 60s, there is a moderate (level 2 of
4) heat risk, meaning prolonged periods outside could affect those
who are sensitive to heat.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected for the rest of the afternoon,
aside from some locations near Lake Michigan and the bay where BKN
low clouds with MVFR/IFR cigs persist. Satellite trends would
indicate these should improve to VFR over the next hour or two,
but will need to watch. Elsewhere, daytime cu with bases around
5-6kft are expected this afternoon.

Overnight, some clearing early, followed by mid clouds moving in
from the west. Models are split on whether any rain materializes
from these clouds. Overall, likelihood at any one location is low.
If any precipitation develops it will be scattered to isolated
(~15-25% chance). Included PROB30 groups for light rain showers at
KAUW, KCWA, and KRHI late tonight and Monday morning, and left
the eastern WI TAF sites dry where probabilities are even lower.

Fog is also expected to develop along the Lake Michigan shoreline
tonight, which will impact KMTW at times with MVFR or IFR vsbys.

Winds winds will gust to 15 to 20 kts this afternoon, subside this
evening and back to the south-southwest. Wind gusts to 15 to 20
kts are also anticipated for Monday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......KLJ