NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 261117
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
517 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Up to one half inch of snow accumulation is expected across far
  northern Wisconsin today. A few slippery stretches on roads and
  sidewalks are possible primarily north of a line from Merrill
  to Sturgeon Bay.

- High temperatures in the 40s on Friday will fall back into the
  teens and lower 20s by Sunday.

- There is a 30-50 percent chance for light snow on Saturday,
  mainly over central and east-central Wisconsin. Confidence in
  snowfall amounts is low due to dry arctic air in place.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Radar returns and surface obs from NC MN show an area of light snow
associated with stronger mid-level warm air advection. As the
thermal advection translates east this morning it will bring periods
of light snow to northern WI through the afternoon. Areas along and
north of HWY 8 may see up to one half inch of accumulations, while
areas south may only see a dusting or no snow at all. Only minor
impacts to travel are expect with a few slippery spots on untreated
roads.

A brief warm up is expected Friday with increasing southwest winds
during the day helping temperatures warm into the 40s across the
region. Warmest temps will be across the Fox Valley where there is a
60-70% chance for highs to top 50 degrees during the afternoon. The
warmth will be short lived as a strong push of CAA is progged to
sweep across the state late Friday into Saturday. As the CAA
increases winds will veer around to the northwest and become breezy
with gusts of 30-35 mph due to deeper mixing and increased momentum
transfer, strongest gusts are expected across north-central WI.

Uncertainty remains high with the next round of snow possible on
Saturday as upper-level troughing lingers over the western Great
Lakes. A narrow f-gen band is progged to develop over southern MN
and track east southeast along the I-94 corridor Saturday. Ensemble
mean and 50 percentile snowfall probs associated with this feature
keep most of the snow south of the forecast area, while the top 10-
25 percent of members bring a swath of 1-4" south of a Wausau to
Green Bay line. An import feature during this period will be the
placement of the baroclinic zone as a much colder drier air mass
will reside on the north side of this boundary. Current ensemble
guidances has this feature anywhere from along the WI/IL border
(GEFS) up to HWY 21 (ENS).

Into next week predictably becomes lower as mean upper-level
fields diverge. There is some indication that a few short-waves
could move across the Midwest bringing light precip chances. More
moderate temperatures are also expected to return next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 517 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Radar returns from KDLH show some light snow starting to move into
far NW WI as of 11Z with surface obs report vsbys of 3-4SM within
the light snow. As the snow continues to move east this morning brief
periods of MVFR vsbys are expected, mainly at RHI. Cigs will also
gradually lower and become MVFR as the snow moves through. MVFR cigs
may extend as far south as AUW and CWA. Expect eastern TAF sites
(ATW, GRB, MTW) to remain predominately VFR today. As the snow
departs this evening flying conditions will improve across the
region with mainly VFR conditions expected tonight. LLWS may also
develop tonight across northern WI.

Beyond the TAF period expect winds initially out of the southwest to
increase Friday. Gusts may reach 30-35kts as a cold front sweeps
across the region veering winds to the northwest.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......GK