NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 240710
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
110 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief periods of hazardous travel are expected at times today as
  a fast moving round of snow crosses the region. A quick 1-3
  inches is expected for most locations with the greatest amounts north
  of highway 8 and northern Door County. A Winter Weather
  Advisory is in effect.

- Friday will be the warmest day this week with >80% chance of
  highs over 40 degrees regionwide. Turning colder again this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

RAP analysis and WV imagery show a compact short-wave driving an area
of snow near the northern MN/ND border early this morning. As this
system continues east this morning it will bring a brief but intense
period of snow to much of the forecast area. CAMs are in generally
good agreement that snow should begin to push into NC WI around 15-
16Z with snowfall rates around 1/1.5" per hour as a low-level jet
intensifies increase low-level thermal advection just ahead of the
short-wave. These higher snowfall rates will continue as the band
quickly moves across the region late this morning and afternoon with
snow coming to an end by 23-00Z. Behind this system winds turn to
the WNW which could spur on light LES along the WI/UP border,
however, with more westerly wind trajectories expect most of the LES
to remain over the UP. Total snowfall amounts with this system
remain light with most locations seeing a quick 1-3", highest across
our northern tier of counties where a Winter Weather Advisory is in
effect through the afternoon. Small chances (~10%) for near 4" exist
across Vilas and northern Door Co.

The next system that could affect the region continues its
southward trend late in the week, where NBM probabilities of
exceeding an inch of snow on Thursday have plummeted below 10%.
While the southern stream system has trended south, it has opened
the door for a northern stream system to track through the region
during that same time period. This would bring the possibility for a
widespread dusting to a few tenths of an inch snowfall accumulation
to the region (20-25% of exceeding 0.1 inch). Beyond that global
ensembles show a signal for a moisture starved frontal passage
Saturday bringing another light snowfall to the region.

Temperatures bounce upward toward normal today then trend back below
normal Wednesday, then return toward average on Thursday. If the
system for Thursday is a complete miss, then highs could trend a few
degrees warmer than the current forecast shows. A strong cyclone
tracking across central Canada puts the region within the warm
sector Friday. NBM probabilities remain very consistent of at least
80% chance of seeing highs across all areas in the 40s. Once the low
and stronger cold front pass by, a cooldown is in store for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions and mid-level clouds are expected to continue
through mid to late Tuesday morning ahead of a system bringing a
3-4 hour period of snow and MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys. The light snow
will move southeast over the TAF sites from mid-morning Tuesday
through early Tuesday afternoon. The greatest snow accumulations
of up to a few inches will occur over far northern WI. At the
least, airport snow removal operations will be needed at KRHI.
MVFR cigs will then stick around at all TAF sites through the
remainder of this TAF period.

Southerly winds will begin to increase late tonight into Tuesday
morning, veering west Tuesday afternoon. Gusts up to 20-30 kts are
expected, with the highest gusts in east-central WI. A period of
LLWS, with winds from the southwest, is expected to develop late
tonight/early Tuesday morning over central and north-central WI,
before winds turn westerly.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this
afternoon for WIZ005.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM CST this
afternoon for WIZ011-012.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this
afternoon for WIZ013.

Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening
for WIZ022.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......Kruk