NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 231941
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
241 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Intermittent chances for rain (20-40%) and thunderstorms are
  forecast through Monday. The risk for organized heavier rain or
  severe weather is low.

- Temperatures to trend above normal starting Sunday, with
  reaching in some places approaching 90 degrees on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Most hours will be dry over the next few days, but there are a few
small chances for showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile,
temperatures will start to trend above normal.

Precipitation: Radar indicates light rain and sprinkles which
were lingering across Door County have moved north. Cannot rule
out a stray shower or sprinkle over the next hour or so, but for
the most part it will be dry. Weak returns on radar show a few
sprinkles may also be reaching the ground in north-central WI, but
for the most part it has been dry. Satellite imagery shows clouds
across the western and eastern forecast area, and sunny to partly
cloudy skies in the middle.

A weak surface front across western WI will continue to track
east this afternoon and evening. Can see isolated to scattered
light rain showers in western WI slowly moving towards central WI.
Continued to carry PoPs from mid-afternoon through early tonight
from west to east across the forecast area. Expect any rain to be
light and short-lived, with amounts under a tenth of an inch. With
up to ~200 J/kg of CAPE cannot rule out a rogue lightning strike,
mainly in central WI. Any showers or sprinkles will depart
towards Lake Michigan by sunrise Sunday. Forecast soundings also
show some shallow low-level moisture, and guidance is showing
patchy fog development overnight. Do not expect widespread or
dense fog, but some patchy fog with lower vsbys are forecast
through shortly after sunrise.

Most of Sunday looks dry and warmer, with high temps in the 70s to
low 80s. LL warm advection and increasing LL jet will provide
enough lift to generate scattered showers late Sunday afternoon
and overnight; although, guidance and CAMs are very mixed on the
extent of these showers. With instability up to ~700 J/kg,
isolated thunderstorms are also possible within this time, but
severe weather is not expected.

Forecast gets muddier into Monday, but generally looking at more
low-end precip chances with an even smaller thunder potential.
Upper ridge builds in for the mid to late week and currently
expecting mainly dry conditions during that time.

Temperatures...After today the area gets into a period of above
normal temperatures. Readings on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday
will be the warmest with highs in the 80s away from Lake Michigan.
There is a 20-50% probability for highs to reach 90 degrees in
central WI on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A few spots across central and northeast WI have dipped into MVFR
during the late morning and early afternoon, but most places can
expect VFR flying conditions through the afternoon as low cloud
bases remain above 3kft and/or cloud coverage is SCT. This
evening, expect MVFR and IFR cigs area wide as sky coverage
increases to BKN to OVC and bases lower to ~500 to 2kft. Patchy
fog development is also likely, especially near Lake Michigan,
resulting in MVFR vsbys overnight.

Conditions improve to VFR through Sunday morning as fog dissipates
and clouds clear.

East-southeast winds will be around 5 to 10 kts today, become
light and variable overnight, and then increase to 5 to 10 kts
from the west on Sunday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......KLJ