NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 210002
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
602 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snowfall returns this evening and overnight to far
  northeast Wisconsin into Door County. An additional three to
  five inches are possible through early Saturday afternoon.

- Cooler conditions expected for the early to mid week along with
  another couple of clipper systems that may bring snow through
  the area.

- Another warming trend possible towards the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Short to mid-range guidance brings the low pressure system to our
northeast through the afternoon and evening hours. Guidance
continues to keep an area of mid-level convergence situated along
the border between the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and far
northeastern Wisconsin during the overnight period into Saturday
morning. This feature will likely produce a fairly narrow but
focused band of additional light snowfall after a lull in the
action during the afternoon. Snow accumulations are likely to
exceed 2-3 inches (70%+ chance) and may get as high as 4 to 5
inches by Saturday afternoon (30-40% chance). Therefore decided
to extended the Winter Weather Advisory into Saturday afternoon
for Florence, Marinette, and Door counties. The narrow nature of
the snowband will likely make for a fairly tight gradient of
snowfall from northeast to southwest across the aforementioned
counties.

Another push of colder air Saturday night could bring additional
light snow Saturday night for far northern Wisconsin in the lake
effect belt region. Overall snow amounts appear on the lighter
end, with probability of around an inch generally around 50-60%. A
realistic worst case continues to be closer to 2-3 inches, but
this potential remains lower and mainly limited to areas in the
far northern corner of Vilas County.

Cold weather follows around the end of the weekend through the
middle of next week with high temperatures likely to get into
upper teens to mid 20s next week. Accompanying the colder air will
be couple additional clipper systems in the early to midweek
period, which could again bring through a round or two of
accumulating snowfall, although again the potential will be
greatest in the north for the lake effect regions.

Finally, long range guidance points towards the potential for
warmer temperatures to return to the area towards the end of next
week, but this will largely depend on whether the ridging over
eastern CONUS will suffice to bring some warmer air from the south
into Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 601 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

MVFR cigs are expected to continue at all TAF sites through
Saturday morning, with the exception of IFR cigs at RHI. Models
indicate a brief period of clouds becoming SCT across the central
and east-central WI TAF sites sometime Saturday morning before
MVFR cigs return late Saturday morning/early Saturday afternoon
and continue through the remainder of the TAF period.

Besides the periods of reduced visibility to LIFR/IFR at the MTW
TAF site over the next few hours due to snow, the snow will remain
over far northeast WI through much of Saturday. Therefore, the
snow should not impact the TAF terminals.

Northwest winds will continue to gust to 20-30 kts this evening
before diminishing late this evening into tonight. A few gusts to
15-20 kts are then expected through the remainder of the TAF
period.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for WIZ012-013-
022-073.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Kruk