NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 120445
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1045 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A pattern change bringing above normal temperatures is expected
  beginning Thursday and continuing into next week. Temperatures
  will likely (40-80% chance) hit 40 degrees by Friday and could
  hit 50 degrees (30-50% chance) south of highway 29 on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Ridging over the upper-Midwest will bring low impact weather to the
region through this weekend. Most noteworthy impact is a 15-20%
chance for fog to develop across northern WI tonight, however, with
drier air arriving with the high pressure any fog that does develop
should remain patchy. Additional periods of fog will be possible
this weekend as warmer air moves over the melting snowpack.
Otherwise, chances for precip this weekend have trended downward
over the last 24 hours with ensembles coming into better agreement
in a more southerly track for a low across the southern CONUS.

Expect a more active pattern to develop early next week as troughing
moves over the central CONUS. Ensemble and deterministic guidance
are in generally agreement that a seasonally warm moist (PWATS up to
0.8") air mass will move over the region. This may lead to a more
impactful precipitation event Tuesday into Wednesday. However, there
is still a large degree of uncertainty with vertical temperature
profiles. This makes determining a dominate p-type difficult for
this period.

Temperatures will begin to trend warmer than normal Thursday with a
50-80% chance of highs above 40 degrees as soon as Friday and a 50-
90% chance by Sunday. There is a 30-50% chance that areas south of
HWY 29 reach 50 degrees by early next week. The warming trend will
lead to a quickly melting snowpack and deteriorating ice conditions,
which does raise the concern for ice jams next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1039 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Stratocumulus clouds (MVFR) may brush through far northeast WI
overnight, as mid/high level clouds get close to central WI.
Otherwise, clear skies and light and variable winds are expected,
along with patchy fog over north central WI into early Thursday
morning.

Have kept a TEMPO group for MVFR/IFR fog at RHI between 09z-13z,
but left any mention of fog out of the remaining TAF sites. Aside
from SCT-BKN mid/high clouds (mainly over the southwest part of
the forecast area), there is potential for scattered stratocumulus
clouds in the afternoon/evening. Light and variable winds will
become southerly Thursday afternoon/evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch