NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 162010
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
210 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record/near record warmth continues for the remainder of the
  day, with temperatures in the low to mid 50s observed this
  afternoon.

- Hazardous travel is expected over northern Wisconsin Tuesday
  night through Wednesday due to a combination of freezing rain,
  sleet, and snow. Winter weather headlines are likely.

- A second system is expected to bring a more widespread round of
  accumulating snow to the region Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Precip chances... Primary focus for this forecast cycle continues
to be on a potent wintry system that is set to bring a slew of
precip types to northeast Wisconsin beginning Tuesday evening. A
strong upper trough ejects from the Intermountain West early on
Tuesday, resulting in cyclogenesis over the northern Plains
Tuesday afternoon. The surface low then tracks over the
upper Mississippi Valley at near record low relative to climo,
weakening slightly upon arrival. Precip type will start as rain
for most Tuesday evening as an initial push of WAA keeps the 540
line off to our north, though a surge of colder air on the back
end of the low will spur height falls over the Northwoods late
Tuesday night. As such, this looks like a favorable setup for
mixed precip types. As 850 mb temps reach +2 to 4C early Wednesday
morning, a Hudson Bay high to the north will feed in much colder
air at the surface, resulting in a classic freezing rain profile
for areas along/north of Hwy 8. Greatest chance (40 to 70%) for a
glazing of ice will be over Vilas, Oneida, and Forest counties,
with a lesser signal (20 to 40%) existing for a tenth of an inch
of ice. Meager elevated instability may even support a rumble or
two of thunder late Tuesday night. Opted to increase SLRs slightly
during the late Tuesday into Wednesday period as greater lift
arrives and potential for dynamic cooling of the column arises.
Snowfall amounts have come up slightly as a result, with the
highest totals (3 to 5", locally higher) concentrated along the
Upper Peninsula border. Overall, looking like a pretty slam dunk
Advisory event, though we should remain below warning criteria in
most places.

Another system is progged to lift north from the central Plains
end of week as the 500 mb wave train remains full steam ahead.
Temperatures should be slightly colder during this time, favoring
a better setup for widespread accumulating snow. Though ensembles
still show a decent spread in both timing and track of the low
this far out, current thinking is that it would be rather
difficult to take a miss from this system. Will obviously need to
be monitored in the coming days for snowfall amounts, as the
interquartile range remains rather large at this time.

Temperatures... Record/near record warmth continues this
afternoon, with temperatures reading in the low to mid 50s for
many as boundary layer mixing taps into 925 mb temps of +6 to 8C.
Only limiting factor to the temperature forecast would be mid-
level clouds that are already present over some areas as of early
this afternoon. Above normal (though not record) temperatures
then continue throughout the work week, moderating back to near
normal by the weekend as high pressure settles over the upper
Midwest.

Wind/fog... Light winds and partial clearing may result in patchy
fog development tonight as winds attempt to decouple, though
CAM consensus doesn't seem to be present. However, would venture
to say that fog should perform slightly better than in previous
overnight periods as decent moisture gets trapped under a near-
surface inversion. Winds then veer to easterly and ramp up
Tuesday afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens up over the
eastern half of the state. Surface gusts to 30 mph will be
possible on land, with gales possible over our northern marine
zones.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1106 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening.
Light winds and windows for clearing may then result in patchy fog
development tonight, lowering cigs into IFR territory within any
areas of denser fog. Opted to include a TEMPO group for reduced
vsbys in the RHI TAF, though wasn't confident enough to include
elsewhere as some CAMs indicate more of a low stratus deck. BKN
mid clouds then arrive toward the end of the period ahead of
approaching low pressure.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Goodin
AVIATION.......Goodin