NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 182330
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
530 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mix of rain and snow over the northwest two-thirds of the
  forecast area will change to light snow this evening, with
  around an inch of accumulation possible over north central and
  central WI by early Thursday. Locally hazardous travel
  conditions are possible.

- Probabilities for a significant snowfall have increased over the
  northwest half of the forecast area Thursday night into Friday,
  with expected accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over central, north
  central and far northeast WI, tapering down to little or no
  accumulation in the Fox Valley, bayshore and lakeshore areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

An occluded front situated along Hwy 29 was slowly lifting north
this afternoon. South of the boundary, temperatures had warmed
into the upper 40s to middle 50s. To the north, areas of low
stratus and fog persisted. Light drizzle or freezing drizzle
was ongoing over far northern WI, where temperatures were still
hovering around 32-33 degrees. A strong short-wave was wrapping
into the southwest part of the forecast area and bringing an area
of light rain, which should change to light snow as it lifts into
the colder air over northern WI.

The short-wave/upper low will move across the northwest part of
the forecast area tonight, with mixed rain/snow changing to all
snow and leaving around and inch of accumulation over areas
northwest of a line from ISW-IMT. Precipitation may brush parts of
eastern WI, but most of this should depart before boundary layer
temperatures get cold enough for a complete changeover to snow.
Thus, little if any accumulation is expected in the Fox Valley,
bayshore and lakeshore areas.

A short lull in the precipitation is expected on Thursday as
tonight's snow lifts north early in the day and patchy light rain
associated with the next system arrives in east central WI late.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s northwest, but should reach
into the 45 to 50 range in parts of central WI and the Fox
Valley, where a period of sunshine is expected.

A Colorado low is expected to lift northeast into the western
Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday, with most of the impacts
occurring between midnight and noon Friday. Most models track the
low through southeast/east central WI, and produce the best
deformation zone snow accumulations over the northwest half of the
forecast area. Farther east, over the Fox Valley, bayshore and
lakeshore areas, rain or mixed rain/snow during the heart of the
event will severely limit the potential for snow accumulations.
Probabilistic guidance is not fully capturing the latest model
trends, and looks too low for 2+ and 4+ inch accumulations. The
current forecast calls for 3 to 5 inches over the northwest half
of the forecast area, and there is certainly some room for these
amounts to come up a bit, given the available moisture and
dynamics with this system. Confidence is not high enough for a
watch issuance at this point, and plan to let the midnight shift
make a decision on a possible advisory or warning headline.

Low pressure remains over the region through the weekend, leading
to potential for continued light snow through the period, but
only minor accumulations.

A dry period is expected during the early part of the next work
week, followed by a clipper type low pressure system over the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 515 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

MVFR/IFR stratus has lingered over much of the area as an occluded
front remains quasi-stationary over the Northwoods. Areas of fog
and visibility reductions to LIFR were also observed along/north
of Hwy 29. A light rain/snow mix ongoing over central Wisconsin
will lift northeast throughout the evening, eventually changing
over to all snow from west to east overnight. Cigs will continue
to lower within areas of precip, eventually bringing MVFR
conditions to the east-central terminals (with the exception of
MTW) within the next few hours. Flying conditions will remain IFR
elsewhere, eventually lifting to MVFR (VFR over east-central
Wisconsin) by late morning on Thursday as precip departs to the
north.

Winds will be predominantly out of the southwest at 5 to 10 knots
overnight, changing to northeasterly by the end of the TAF
period. Surface gusts to 20 knots will be possible over the
central Wisconsin sites tonight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Goodin