NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 292300
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
600 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather prevails through next Tuesday or Wednesday.

- Temperatures near normal on Saturday followed by above normal
  temperatures through next week, with highs mostly in the 80s.

- Elevated fire weather conditions into next week due to low
  relative humidity. Concern rises further next week when winds
  increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

High pressure primary weather factor into next week as large scale
omega block persists. Backdoor front drops through from the north
late tonight into Saturday. Too dry for rain, but could see a few
more mid clouds on Saturday. High builds back in behind the front
into early next week. High drifts to east coast Wed and Thu, with
return flow developing over the western Great Lakes. PWATs begin
to creep up over the 90th percentile by Thursday with some MUCAPE
ahead of a low pressure trough over the northern Plains. This will
be the next better chance of at least scattered showers and storms.
Front in the vicinity next Friday with higher ceiling for CAPE
could lead to better chance of sfc based storms. Not much of a
signal for severe showing up on the various Machine Learning progs
quite yet.

Temperatures...High temperatures in the 80s this afternoon, with
locally cooler readings near Lake Michigan. Mid lake water temp
still only around 40, though available buoys and GLERL analysis
show nearshore waters warming into the 50s and even lower 60s on
the bay. On Saturday, backdoor front brings gradient easterly
winds and cooling farther inland with 50s/60s near the immediate
bay and lake, and readings as warm as the mid to upper 70s farther
inland from central WI to north-central WI. Beyond Saturday, highs
mainly will be back into the mid to upper 70s to mid 80s, with
cooling more localized near Lake Michigan. Warmest days next Tue
through Thu ahead of the approaching front.

Fire weather...Elevated fire weather conditions will continue
through much of next week until a widespread wetting rain occurs.
Despite green up progressing, fuel input from fire partners
points to concern that where recent dryness persists, any days
with increasing winds could allow the fire weather potential to
rise. Will have to keep eye on Tue through Thu timeframe as the
lower RH values could link up with increasing gradient winds as
the high pressure over the region this weekend exits east and
trough approaches from the northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Scattered high
based clouds (12-25 kft) will filter over the region tonight as a
backdoor cold front sags across the region. Scatterd clouds will
linger through Saturday, but expect plenty of sunshine as well.

Winds will be light through this evening with a local lake breeze
up to 10 kts near Lake Michigan (MTW). Winds then switch to the
E-NE late tonight as backdoor front moves through. Though winds
stay 10 kts or less on Saturday, gusts could reach 15 kts.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......GK