NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 091124
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
524 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 40 to 70 percent chance of a light glazing of ice
  late this afternoon and especially this evening, transitioning
  to light snow overnight. Slick to hazardous travel will
  develop on untreated roads where freezing rain occurs.

- Mainly dry conditions with seasonably mild temperatures
  expected for the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Today-Tonight:

GOES Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
across the southern Canadian prairies early this morning. This wave
will get sheared out as it progresses east through the day while an
additional shortwave trough moves east from the northern plains this
evening.

Relatively strong mid-level warm advection will take place ahead of
the waves this afternoon/evening while the broader synoptic lift has
perhaps trended a bit weaker across northern Wisconsin. Still expect
the highest chances for light precipitation to be across northern
Wisconsin late today into tonight, with the strong warm nose aloft
favoring freezing rain initially before transitioning to snow
overnight as cooling/wet bulbing occurs through the thermal
profile. Overall, amounts continue to look quite light with a
glazing of ice (40-70% chance over far northern WI, along and
north of Highway 8) and snow under an inch. One notable trend is
for slower onset with soundings from 09.00Z CAMs showing a
deeper layer of dry air centered around 850 mb through the
daytime hours compared with 08.12Z CAMs. As a result, precip
likely will struggle to reach the ground initially.
Consequently, lowered precip chances through the afternoon.

Contemplated delaying the start of the Winter Weather Advisory
a few hours, but with the warm nose aloft and subfreezing wet
bulb temps, any very light precip reaching the ground would
likely fall as freezing rain late this afternoon, so confidence
was not high enough to adjust timing just yet.


Tuesday-Sunday:

Gusty northwest winds will follow behind the clipper system on
Tuesday in the cold advection regime. High pressure will then
settle across the Great Lakes on Wednesday with dry conditions
continuing and seasonable temps. A fairly zonal split flow
pattern will continue through the weekend with a seasonably
mild period in store for late week into the weekend and little
signal for impactful precip at this time over our area. A
southern stream trough is forecast to eject across the lower
Mississippi Valley over the weekend, but chances of precip
locally are low (~20%) for now.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the day today with mid/high
clouds and southerly winds up to 10 kts ahead of a cold front
that will move through overnight tonight. Winds will shift
northwest late tonight, likely becoming gusty beyond this TAF
period on Tuesday.

The highest precipitation chances will be focused across far
northern Wisconsin this evening into tonight with light freezing
rain/mix transitioning to snow. Delayed the precip arrival at
KRHI with substantial mid-level dry air to overcome.

Probabilities for IFR/MVFR conditions increase after 10.06Z at
KRHI and towards the end of the TAF period over central
Wisconsin behind the front.

&&


.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST
     Tuesday for WIZ005-010>013-021-022-073.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for LMZ541-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for LMZ543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM