NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 071158
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
558 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Foggy conditions should improve from west to east this morning
  as a cold front brings drier air and gusty northwest winds to
  the region.

- Brief wintry mix in far north-central WI this morning, with only
  minor snow and ice accumulations expected.

- Runoff from recent rainfall and warmer temperatures may result
  in ice shifting and breaking up on rivers, leading to a
  localized ice jam flooding threat into early next week. Ice
  floes could also be a concern on Green Bay Sunday into Monday.

- Very warm and breezy Sunday and Monday. Highs reaching the 60s in
  some areas. Turning blustery and cooler for the middle of next
  week, with potential for rain and snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A surface low and associated cold front was moving through the
forecast area this morning. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
were developing along and ahead of the front, aided by the RRQ of
an upper jet and deep moisture convergence on the nose of a 40-50
knot low-level jet. Localized heavy rainfall was accompanying the
storms, as well as small hail and brief wind gusts to 30 mph.
Widespread low stratus and fog continued across the area, though
improvement occurred in central and east central WI as a warm
front moved into the southern part of the forecast area. This
front boosted temperatures into the lower to middle 50s across
our southern couple tiers of counties.

Most of the steadier rain and thunderstorms will shift east of
the region by 4 am, though lighter precipitation will linger in
some areas through the morning. Deformation zone precipitation
over north central WI does not look as significant as it did the
past couple days, but even so, minor snow and ice accumulations
could impact the far northwest part of the CWA as colder air
arrives around daybreak. snow accumulations should remain under an
inch, and a minor glaze of ice could occur over mainly northwest
Vilas County. Developing northwest winds in the wake of the
frontal passage will bring drier air, resulting in an end to the
foggy conditions in most areas by midday. Will be reevaluating the
Dense Fog and Marine Dense Fog advisories early this morning, to
see if extensions will be needed.

A generally dry period is expected tonight through Monday night,
with a couple clipper systems passing by well to our north. Breezy
southwest winds on Sunday and compressional heating as a dry cold
front moves through on Monday, will result in very mild
temperatures, with readings in the 60s in our typical warm spots.

Another low pressure system tracks south and east of the forecast
from Tuesday through Wednesday night, bringing mixed precipitation
changing to snow and blustery NE-N winds. Will have to watch this
system, as there is potential for light snow and ice accumulations.
There is also Gale potential on Lake Michigan through the midweek
period.

Another low pressure system arrives Thursday night into Friday,
bringing the next chance of organized precipitation.

Ice Jam/Ice Floe Potential...Runoff from this morning's rain
and continued mild temperatures will increase the threat of ice
break-up into early next week. This could result in susceptible
rivers rising to bankfull or oven minor flood stage over the next
few days. An increased threat of ice floes on Green Bay could
also develop, especially from Sunday into Monday morning, when
gusty southwest winds will occur.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 546 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A cold front was moving through the forecast area early this
morning. Most of the rain with this front has shifted east of the
region, but a band of mixed rain, freezing rain and snow will
brush through north central WI this morning. Aside from parts of
east central WI, where a warm frontal passage brought improving
conditions, widespread low stratus and fog covered the area. The
fog was quite dense near the cold front, with gradually improving
conditions behind it.

Expect areas of fog, patchy dense fog, low stratus and LIFR/VLIFR
flight conditions to gradually improve from west to east as drier
air and gusty northwest winds develop in the wake of the cold
front. By afternoon, most places should improve to MVFR, followed
by VFR condiitons as partial clearing occurs in the late
afternoon/evening.

Gusty northwest winds back to southwest tonight. LLWS will move
out of east central WI this morning, but much stronger and more
widespread LLWS overspread the area late tonight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch