NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 020143
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
843 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

New information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

No changes to the Freeze Warning this evening. Skies have
partially cleared across the area, but patches of mid-clouds
remain present. As clearing gradually continues and winds become
calm later this evening or early overnight, temps do not have far
to fall before reaching freezing. Probabilities of reaching 32
degrees generally range from 80-100% across the region, except
over the Door Peninsula, but that's where 8 pm temps are the
coldest (Washington Island/Egg Harbor - 35 degrees).

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread freezing temperatures overnight tonight may damage
  any early season sensitive vegetation with warming
  temperatures through the weekend.

- Periodic shower chances Saturday night into next week,
  including potential for a few storms on Monday. However, rain
  amounts through the first half of May look average to below
  average.

- Temperatures will trend back below average next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Tonight: Frost/Freeze Potential

Scattered showers, even mixed with snow in spots, will
gradually diminish by this evening across eastern Wisconsin with
clearing expected from north to south. Issued a Freeze Warning
for susceptible counties across central into east-central
Wisconsin with high (>70%) chances for temps below freezing
early Saturday. For portions of the Fox Valley and immediate
lakeshore areas, chances are a bit lower (30 to 60%), but most
areas likely will be near freezing.

Rainfall Potential into Next Week

Northwest flow aloft will persist into next week with
intermittent shower/storm chances during this time. Shower
chances arrive Saturday night into Sunday as a weak trough
impacts the area. With limited moisture and instability, amounts
look light with generally low (20 to 40%) chances for 0.10
inches or more.

A stronger cold front will move through on Monday with higher
chances (40 to 70%) for showers and a few storms. However,
moisture and instability will be modest across the area,
limiting the risk for more impactful rain or stronger storms.

Low end chances for showers will continue through the work week
at times as embedded troughs progress through the longwave
trough across the Great Lakes. However, overall trends suggest
average to below average precipitation over the next two weeks.

Temps: Warming This Weekend and Cooler Next Week

Temperatures will rebound through Monday, with Monday likely the
warmest day over the next week, ahead of a cold front. With the
return to pronounced northwest flow aloft for much of the rest
of next week, below average temps are favored, with some
potential for frost/freeze concerns for susceptible areas next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Cool, cyclonic flow aloft will gradually shift east over the next
24 hours. 5000 to 7000 ft convective clouds will be slow to
dissipate this evening, but anticipate this clearing trend will
accelerate this evening once the sun sets. Clouds, as well as
spotty sprinkles and flurries, will be slowest to dissipate over
eastern WI where it may take until late evening. Regardless, VFR
flight conditions are expected.

After a period of mostly clear skies overnight into Saturday
morning, expect fair weather clouds to build with the heat of the
day by late Saturday morning. Similar to what occurred over
Minnesota, cloud bases should be high based and coverage should be
not as widespread as today.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Saturday for
WIZ022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........MPC
DISCUSSION.....JM
AVIATION.......MPC