NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 101111
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
511 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow is expected today and tonight with the highest
  amounts in far eastern Wisconsin. Winter Weather Advisories have
  been issued for far northeast and east-central Wisconsin with a
  Winter Storm Warning for Door County.

- There is a chance of light snow accumulations across northern
  Wisconsin Sunday night.

- Additional snow accumulations are possible late Monday night
  into Wednesday.

- After a brief cool down over the weekend, temperatures will
  rebound to above normal early next week, then fall again into
  midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Snowfall Today and Tonight...

Models have come into better agreement regarding the phasing of
the northern and southern stream systems across the western Great
Lakes today. There will be an initial push of moisture and snow
from the west and south this morning, which will lift northeast
this afternoon, then pivot back south this evening and into the
overnight hours. Although much of east-central Wisconsin will see
a reprieve from the snow this afternoon, another push of snow will
impact central and north-central Wisconsin along with the pivot
zone across Door and Marinette counties.

Snowfall amounts will generally be 0.5 to 2 inches across much of
the area today and tonight. much of east-central and northeast
Wisconsin will likely see 2 to 4 inches, with Door County getting
around 6 inches, especially in the northern portion of the county
in the pivot zone of the snow. Vilas County could also see 2 to 3
inches with some assistance from Lake Superior. NBM probabilities
are 50-60% for exceeding 4 inches across east-central and far
northeast Wisconsin, with around 50% of exceeding 6 inches for
Door County.

Given the increased confidence and NBM probabilities, will issue
a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of east-central Wisconsin
for the initial push of snow this morning into the early
afternoon. Given the break in the snow this afternoon and
additional amounts this evening of only a half inch or so will not
carry the headline into the evening. Farther north will keep the
same timing for southern Oconto County for the same reasons in a
Winter Weather Advisory but will issue a Winter Weather Advisory
for Marinette County through midnight as they are most likely to
not see a significant break in the snowfall given the proximity to
the region where the snowband will pivot.

Despite only a 50% chance of exceeding 6 inches with the NBM,
there are enough models that generate 6 inches or more of snow
across Door County during this event. Also, since Door County, and
especially northern Door County, will be in the pivot zone for
the entire event confidence is higher than the NBM in snowfall
amounts exceeding 6 inches. Therefore, will issue a Winter Storm
Warning for Door County through early Sunday morning as most areas
will not see a break in the snowfall.

Forecast beyond Saturday Night...

A weak clipper system will brush through northern Wisconsin Sunday
night, and could bring light accumulations and slippery roads
across the area. A second stronger clipper arrives late Monday
night and impacts the region through Wednesday. Accumulating snow
is expected over much of the forecast area through Tuesday night,
with additional accumulations due to lake- effect expected over
north-central Wisconsin on Wednesday. Yet another system arrives
Thursday night into Friday; however, NWP models show quite a bit
of difference in the track of this low through the region.

Temperatures cool down a bit this weekend, then warm to above
normal again early next week. A decent surge of colder air and
gusty north winds follows the midweek clipper system, leading to
cooler temperatures for the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 511 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

MVFR/VFR conditions prevailed across the region early this morning
as snow was approaching the airports from the west and south as a
clipper system approached the region.

The clipper remains on track to bring light snow to the region,
starting around or shortly after TAF issuance. Flight conditions
will likely drop to IFR as this occurs, but a brief period of LIFR
is possible over east-central Wisconsin this morning. The
heaviest snow will be over the lakeshore where there is a 50-60%
chance of 2 inches or more of accumulations.

The snow will diminish at most locations except for northern Door
county by midday. Periods of light snow and and flurries will
then move back into north-central and northeast Wisconsin from
mid to late afternoon and continue through tonight.

Northerly low level wind shear is forecast to develop across
north-central (RHI/AUW/CWA) TAF sites after 03Z Sunday then
across the east-central (ATW/GRB/MTW) TAF sites after 06Z Sunday.

Light winds will become northwest today, with gusts to 20 kts in
the afternoon and evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ013-
073.

Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Sunday for WIZ022.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for WIZ039-
040-049-050-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski