NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 181752
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1152 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance
and new information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1141 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

In the wake of the heavy snow band earlier this morning, mid-level
drying has occurred, leading to a loss of ice crystals in the
saturated layer. As a result, light freezing rain has returned to
the Northwoods, where surface temperatures remain right around the
freezing mark. Deeper moisture will rotate back into the northwest
half of the forecast area as a strong short-wave arrives mid to
late afternoon, and then p-type will be primarily rain or snow,
depending on boundary layer temperatures.

Although freezing rain may linger for a few more hours over the
Northwoods, the plan is to let the advisory expire at noon. Light
icing could still accumulate on untreated surfaces, but most roads
should have been treated by this point.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing precipitation this morning, with anything from freezing
  rain in the north to thunder in the south. Expect a variety of
  precip types to continue through mid to late morning, with a
  window for a quick burst of heavier snow near the U.P. border
  after 12Z.

- Snow is possible area-wide late Thursday into Friday, with a
  30-60% probability of at least 2" of snow north and west of the
  Fox Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 442 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Ongoing precipitation across most of the forecast area early this
morning, with precip ranging from freezing rain in northern
Wisconsin, to rain and even some thunder in parts of central WI
including Wisconsin Rapids, Wautoma, and Waupaca. Hard to gauge
exactly how much snow/ice has fallen across the north so far with
limited obs available at this hour. Call to Florence County
estimates about 3 inches of snow so far, and slippery and slushy
road conditions. A little farther south, one webcam near
Athelstane (Marinette County) shows there has been some precip,
with some minor accumulation of maybe a couple tenths on an
elevated board. Other calls around northern WI indicate some
slippery spots on roads, but no major accumulations.

Going forward, another band of strong fgen (currently associated
with the precip band containing lightning) will pivot northeast
over the next few hours. This will lead to moderate precip moving
through from SW to NE. Warmer temps continue to support rain for
much of the area, with the focus for mixed precip north of Hwy 8.
Forecast soundings show some cooling along with increased
moisture in the DGZ between ~12-16Z across the far north which
means there is still potential for a quick additional 1 to 4
inches of snow/sleet. Models show the highest amounts right along
the U.P. border, with some outputs even closer to 6 inches. Strong
dynamics would support isolated amounts this high, but expect this
to be isolated. The majority of northern WI will still be in the
half to 2 inch range. Strongest forcing departs mid- morning, with
the best moisture getting stripped away, too, so ending with a
little icing from freezing rain.

Low remains to the northwest this afternoon and Thursday, which
will result in continued light/slow snow accumulations across the
north this afternoon and overnight. Additional accumulations of a
couple tenths up to 1 inch are forecast. The main impact will be a
slower return to dry road conditions, especially on secondary or
untreated roads.

Next system is a Colorado low moving from the Four Corners late
today to the western Great Lakes by Friday morning. Still
differences in system track, resulting in quite the spread of
potential snowfall totals. Across central and north-central WI
10th percentile amounts are near zero, while 90th percentile
amounts range from 6 to 10 inches. Have slightly higher
confidence in mostly rain across the Fox Valley and east-central
WI, but 90th percentile amounts are still 1 to 2 inches. Stuck
with a mean forecast for now with central and north-central WI
mostly in the 2 to 5 inch range, but there is still time for this
system to pivot either way and forecast snow amounts to go up or
down.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1141 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

An occluded front has lifted into central and east central WI,
resulting in an improvement to VFR over the far south. Just to the
north of the boundary, areas of low stratus and fog continued,
with flight conditions in the IFR/LIFR range. Expect low clouds
and fog to persist over northern WI this afternoon, as the
occluded front is not expected to make it that far north.

Light freezing rain will impact northern WI (and the RHI TAF site)
for a few more hours, then a mix of rain and snow will change to
snow from west to east later this afternoon and evening as a
strong short-wave trough moves through. Vsbys will drop into the
IFR range at the western TAF sites this evening, and MVFR
conditions will be possible at GRB/ATW. Think that the MTW TAF
site will remain dry.

The precipitation should taper off late tonight into early
Thursday, with IFR ceilings improving to MVFR during the morning.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ005-010>013-
019-021.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........Kieckbusch
DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch