NWS-Green Bay Forecast Discussion

						FXUS63 KGRB 151721
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1121 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected Monday. Several
  record highs appear possible as high temperatures climb into the
  middle 50s.

- A potent system is expected (80-95% chance) to bring rain,
  snow, and a wintry mix to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday.
  Travel may be impacted by a wintry mix or accumulating snow
  across northern Wisconsin.

- A second storm system may bring additional chances (30-50%
  chance) for accumulating snow late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Patchy Fog This Morning: Satellite and METAR observations indicate
an area of dense fog across far northeast Wisconsin, mainly in
northern Door and Marinette counties. There is also some patchy
fog across portions of nroth-central and central Wisconsin, with
higher visibilities. A weak cold front sweeping through the region
is expected to clear out the fog as winds turn to a westerly
direction later this morning. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies this
afternoon should once again lead to highs well above normal
temperatures; however, highs are expected to fall a few degrees
short of record highs today.

Light Freezing Drizzle Tonight into Monday Morning: Models
indicate some strong low level frontogenesis late tonight into
Monday morning across the region. In addition, model soundings
show enough low level moisture of a few thousand feet to squeeze
out some drizzle during this period. Sub-freezing surface and road
temperatures could produce some freezing drizzle late tonight into
Monday morning, which could create some slick spots on area
roadways, particularly on untreated roads. The Monday morning
commute may be impacted.

Record Warmth Early This Week: The mean upper-level pattern will
feature a deep trough over the West Coast and ridging building
into the Midwest. Ahead of an ejecting Plains shortwave, 925mb
temperatures are projected to reach the 95th to 98th percentile on
Monday. With decent mixing in the boundary layer, highs ranging
from the mid 50s to upper 50s are possible across parts of central
and east-central Wisconsin. Several record highs look attainable.
Confidence is slightly lower across far northern Wisconsin where
cloud cover may be more persistent behind a weak front. Highs on
Tuesday will remain well above normal, generally in the mid 40s to
mid 50s.

Mid-week Storm System: A large surge of moisture will move into
the region Tuesday evening ahead of a potent low pressure system
tracking toward the Great Lakes. Critical thicknesses are
forecast to sag south over northern Wisconsin as heights fall,
leading to widespread precipitation Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Probabilistic guidance suggests a probability of mixed
precipitation, including freezing rain, generally north of highway
29. While the NBM is less enthusiastic about a wintry mix, it may
be underestimating the low-level cold air originating from a
Hudson Bay high. Several inches of snow look possible near the
U.P. border (probability of 2+ inches ranges from 30-40%).
Probabilities for at least a glaze of ice has increased into the
30-50% range across much of north-central Wisconsin. Minor snow
accumulations look to continue into Wednesday night as colder air
filters in behind the departing low. Hazardous and potentially icy
travel is possible during this window.

Late Week Snow Potential: Predictability is low that a second
area of low pressure will develop over the central Plains by
Thursday. Ensemble means point towards a more favorable track for
snow accumulations across the forecast area late Thursday night
into Friday. While specific amounts remain uncertain this far
out, this second system bears watching for more significant
winter weather impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

High pressure shifting east of the region has led to clearing
skies, though mid and high-level clouds will increase this evening
ahead of the next weather system. Current satellite imagery shows
some lingering low stratus lifting over northern Lake Michigan,
which should remain clear of the terminals this afternoon.

Fog could develop once again along the lakeshore early this
evening thanks to clear skies and light onshore flow. Have
included a tempo group at KMTW for IFR visibilities. As winds turn
to the south, think fog potential will decrease around 06Z.

Expect a brief period of near MVFR ceilings at north-central
terminals (KRHI, KAUW, KCWA) between 10z and 15z Monday as the
weak cold front crosses the area. While there was some potential
in some models for light freezing drizzle, the latest guidance
shows drier air in the low levels. This suggests saturation will
be insufficient for precipitation, and it has been removed from
the forecast.

Another concern is the potential for low-level wind shear (LLWS)
for a brief time early Monday morning. Increasing winds just off
the surface ahead of an approaching weak front will bring
potential for LLWS to the terminals between 10-15Z Monday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......MPC