DataStreme ECS WEEK TWELVE: 21-25 April 2014

ITEMS OF INTEREST

• Casting a vote for NOAA Climate.gov -- NOAA' climate website called NOAA Climate.gov has been nominated by the International Academy of the Digital Arts & Sciences as one of five nominees for the 18th Annual Webby Awards for online excellence. This website has been nominated in both the "Government" and "Green" categories. Therefore NOAA Climate.gov is inviting anyone who enjoys this website to vote for Climate.gov in the Government category or the "Teaching Climate" in the Green category no later than Thursday, 24 April. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
• Participate in NSF/NSTA Web Seminar "Ice Cores, Climate, and Career Pathways" -- Educators from high school through college and university level are invited to participate in the NSF/NSTA Web Seminar “Ice Cores, Climate, and Career Pathways” on Thursday, 1 May 2014 from 2:00 to 3:30 PM EDT. This web seminar will address two important topics: key discoveries about climate change based on evidence in ice cores from the polar regions, and information to support mentoring of students in science and engineering careers. For more information and to register, please visit http://learningcenter.nsta.org/products/symposia_seminars/NSF/webseminar5.aspx
• Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2014 Campaign is underway -- The fourth of a series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2014 began this past Sunday and will run for 10 nights (20-29 April). GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation (Orion or Leo in the northern hemisphere, and Orion and Crux in the southern hemisphere) with seven star charts of progressively fainter stars. In addition to the 20-29 April campaign, the one remaining GLOBE at Night campaigns during the first five months of 2014 will be on 19-28 May. [GLOBE at Night]
  
• National Park Week -- The US Department of the Interior's National Park Service has designated the week commencing this week (19-27 April 2014) as National Park Week. The focus for this year's observance is "Go Wild!!"
• Celebrate Earth Day --This Tuesday (22 April 2014) marks the 44th Earth Day, first proposed by the late Senator Gaylord Nelson of Wisconsin in 1970 as a teach-in to heighten awareness of the environment. The Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison has posted a website called "Gaylord Nelson and Earth Day: The Making of the Modern Environmental Movement" that highlights Senator Nelson and his idea became Earth Day. Several governmental websites provides links to various activities and resources planned for this week, including a website maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). NASA also provides a list of live public events and online activities between 21 and 27 April designed to celebrate Earth Day, including the NASA #GlobalSelfie Event where people from around the world would go outside on Tuesday and post a "selfie."
• Celebrating Arbor Day -- This coming Friday, 25 April 2014, many locations across the nation will celebrate Arbor Day, a day when the planting of trees is encouraged. Arbor Day was originally proposed in 1872 by J. Sterling Morton, Nebraska's first newspaper editor, and continues to be most often celebrated by individual states on the last Friday in April. However, since planting conditions vary greatly due to the state's climate it may occur from September to May. In Arkansas, Arbor Day is celebrated on the third Monday in March, but in Alaska, the date is the third Monday in May. For your state's observance (and name of the official state tree), please consult the National Arbor Day Foundation.
• National Science Bowl set for next weekend -- The US Department of Energy (DOE) National Science Bowl®, a nationwide academic competition for middle and high school students will be held this coming weekend (24-28 April 2014) in Washington, DC. This event will test students' knowledge in all areas of science and is meant to encourage high school students to excel in science and math and to pursue careers in those fields. [DOE Office of Science]
• Watching the seasons -- phenology observations and climate change -- For centuries, interested citizens and scientists have been recording the dates of recurring biological and other natural events that appear to be related to the seasons. This tracking of these natural cyclic events, called phenology, if extended over many years, can be used to document how long-term changes in these seasonal events change in response to long-term changes in climate. For more information on recent efforts to establish a nationwide phenological observation network and how it could be used for studying climate change, see this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

• March 2014 weather and climate for the nation reviewed -- Scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center recently reported on their analysis of preliminary weather data collected during the month of March 2014. When averaged across the coterminous United States, the monthly temperature for March 2014 was 40.5 degrees Fahrenheit, which was 1.0 Fahrenheit degrees below the 20th-century (1901-2000) average. Nearly all the states in the eastern half of the nation experienced below to much below average statewide temperatures. Vermont experienced its coldest March since 1895, the year when a comprehensive nationwide climate reporting network began. In addition, eight other states across New England and around the Great Lakes had statewide temperatures that were within the ten lowest for the record extending back 120 years. In contrast, states west of the Rockies had above to much above average March temperatures. The statewide temperature in California was ninth highest for March since 1895.
  The average precipitation across the contiguous US for March 2014 was 2.29 inches, which was 0.22 inch below the 20th-century average. Many of the states across the nation's midsection experienced below to much below average March precipitation. The statewide average March precipitation for Illinois, Iowa and Kansas ranked within the top ten driest March totals in 120 years. In contrast, four states across the Northwest (Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington) had above average precipitation.
  Data analyzed by the Rutgers Global Snow Lab indicate the March snow cover extent across the contiguous US was slightly above the average extent for the 48-year period of record across the 48 states. [State of the Climate NOAA/NCDC]
• March national drought report -- The National Climate Data Center has posted its March 2014 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately 16 percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of March, while approximately seven percent of the nation had severely to extremely wet conditions at that time.
• The 2013 hurricane season reviewed -- The 2013 hurricane seasons in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific are reviewed and compared to the more than 150 years of record keeping in the North Atlantic and the 40 years in the eastern North Pacific. [AMS DataStreme Atmosphere]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

• An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAAWatch]

CLIMATE FORCING

• "Atmospheric rivers" could be "drought-busters" along West Coast -- Several recent case studies are presented in which "atmospheric rivers" that developed over the North Pacific have brought sufficient quantities of precipitation to the US West Coast so as to serve as "drought busters" by either reducing or eliminating large scale drought conditions across the region. These atmospheric rivers, or narrow plumes of humid air being transported by winds in the mid and upper troposphere from the tropical Pacific Ocean, supply large amounts of water vapor that are converted to heavy rains and snows along the Coast and across the Sierras, helping replenish California's water supply. [NOAA Climate.gov News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

• New Seasonal Climate Outlooks released -- During the last week, forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released their Three-Month (Seasonal) Climate Outlooks for the three-months running from May through July 2014, which contains the last month of meteorological spring and the first two months of two months of meteorological summer. Specific details of their outlooks include:
• Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, a large section of the 48 contiguous United States should experience a high chance of above average temperatures for these three upcoming months, with the greatest probability of such an occurrence across California and adjacent sections of Arizona, Nevada and Oregon. Above average temperatures appear to be likely across the Northwest, the southern tier of states and along the Atlantic Seaboard. On the other hand, sections of the northern Plains, especially in Montana and North Dakota, appear to have a good chance for below average temperatures. The rest of the "lower 48" were expected to have near equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions.
  Their precipitation outlook calls for better than even chances of dry conditions for May through July 2014 across sections of the Northwest, with western Oregon appearing to have the highest chance of drier than average weather conditions. Sections of the Southwest, primarily in the vicinity of the Four Corners (Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico). The rest of the contiguous United States should have equal chances of below and above average precipitation for late spring and early summer. [NOAA Climate Prediction Center] Outlooks for May are also available. A summary of the prognostic discussion of the outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based in part upon the current ENSO-neutral conditions (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation) with neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions would begin to evolve into an El Niño phase by summer 2014 in the Northern Hemisphere.
  
• Seasonal Drought Outlook released -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook that would run from mid April through July 2014 in which drought conditions were expected to persist or intensify across many of the Western States, especially along the West Coast, across the Great Basin and the southern Plains. Improvement in drought conditions was expected across the central Plains, with some areas being removed from drought consideration. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.

CLIMATE IMPACTS ON THE BIOSPHERE

• Wildfires are increasing in size and frequency across the Western States -- In a study conducted by researchers from the University of Utah and the University of California, wildfires have become larger and more frequent across the western half of the United States extending from California to Nebraska between 1984 and 2011. Using data collected from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity Project (MTBS), the number of wildfires that were at least 1000 acres in size increased at a rate of seven fires per year during this time span. The researchers foresee this trend continuing in the forthcoming decades as changing climate would cause air temperatures to rise and drought to become more severe. [American Geophysical Union News]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

• Landscape from 3 million years ago found under Greenland Ice Sheet -- A research team from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center and several academic research institutions recently found specimens of a tundra landscape consisting of vegetation and organic soil dating back 2.7 million years under the Greenland Ice Sheet. Their discovery made from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP)-2 ice core drilled suggests that the Greenland Ice Sheet has persisted for longer than previously thought and endured through earlier times of global warning during earlier interglacial periods. [NASA's Earth Science News Team]
• "Water World" theory of life's origins outlined -- Researchers at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Icy Worlds team at NASA's Astrobiology Institute based at NASA's Ames Research Center have recently provided a description of how electrical energy naturally produced at the sea floor might have given rise to life on ancient Earth at least four billion years ago. Their "water world" theory, which is based upon field and theoretical research, suggests that early life may have begun inside warm, gentle springs on the sea floor of an early planet that had expansive oceans. [NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory]
• Meteorites may have delivered vitamins to ancient Earth from space -- A team of scientists working at NASA Goddard's Astrobiology Analytical Laboratory discovered that the eight different types of carbon-rich meteorites they sampled contained a variety of chemical compounds including vitamin B₃ and other pyridine carboxylic acids. The researchers think that these carbon-rich meteorites, which may have originated in a dense cloud of gas, dust and ice grains in the early solar system, bombarded Earth and provided the early planet with a supply of nicotinic acid or niacin needed for early life. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

• Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Human health and climate change

Climate scientists and other experts studying the projected changes in the global climate have been concerned that these changes can have potentially adverse effects upon human health. The specific health outcomes are highly uncertain. However, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States Report, several key health-related issues on the national level that could be affected by climate are: heat issues and heat waves, air quality, extreme weather events, heat associated diseases, pollen effects, and vulnerable groups.

One of the more obvious consequences of changes in climate is the increased incidence of temperature-related illnesses and deaths, especially those that would occur with heat waves, or episodes of extreme heat. Projected increases in air temperature and rising humidity levels across the nation during the 21st century would also be accompanied by increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, where air temperature and heat indices would exceed certain threshold levels for several days. In the United States, recent heat waves have resulted in numerous deaths, especially in large metropolitan areas. The elderly, the poor in urban areas and those with underlying health issues (such as diabetes and hypertension) appear to be the most susceptible to higher air temperatures and extended heat waves. Some models indicate that mortality rates would increase more rapidly in northern cities, where populations are less accustomed to the less-frequent heat waves. Using a model that includes a high emissions scenario, the average annual number of heat-related deaths in the Chicago (IL) metropolitan area could reach 700 by 2050 and 1200 by 2100.

Certain health effects would be related to extreme weather events. In addition to above-described heat waves, increases in injuries and deaths could occur if extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes or tropical storms) and floods would increase in frequency. The disaster wrought by Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, LA and the Gulf Coast in 2005 could serve as an example. Water-borne diseases can be related to water contamination caused by heavy precipitation events. A Cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee, WI occurred in 1993 in which 54 people died when the municipal drinking water supply became contaminated by sewage that was not properly treated because of overtaxed storm sewers. Some climate models suggest an increased incidence of extreme weather events across the nation during a warmer 21st century, especially in the frequency of excessive precipitation events. If improvement in the sewerage and water treatment facilities are not made, projected in creases in intense precipitation events could pose an increased health risk to many people, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. Chicago could have sewer overflow events going up by 50 to 120 percent in the future. In addition to the casualties that would be directly related to the natural disasters, such as drowning, some secondary effects to these disasters have been suggested, including problems with public health infrastructures and with post traumatic stress disorder following the event.

Increases in those infectious diseases borne by insects, ticks and rodents could be possible with future changes in climate. Temperature appears to serve as a major constraint on the range of microbes and vectors, meaning that some diseases could be spread poleward with higher temperatures. While malaria, yellow fever and dengue fever have been nearly eradicated across the nation, some other diseases, such as Lyme disease and encephalitis, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding insects, ticks and mites, may occur in some areas as the result of extended spells of warm wet winters, cold springs. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations appear to increase pollen production and lengthen the pollen season. Consequently, highly allergenic pollen could pose an increased health risk to many people.

The report also cautions that particular groups of people could be especially vulnerable to future climate change, highlighting the increases in the incidence of diabetes and obesity, which make individuals more susceptible to disease or air quality or heat.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

1. The number of deaths that could occur in a Chicago heat wave by 2050 under the highest danger estimates could reach [(350), (700), (1200)].
2. The incidence of water and food borne diseases [(are),(are not)] likely to increase.

Historical Events:

• 21 April 1989...The temperature at Las Animas, CO soared to 100 degrees to establish a state record for April. Twenty-two cities in the central and southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Eight cities equaled or exceeded previous April records. Tucson, AZ experienced its fourth consecutive day of record heat with an afternoon high of 104 degrees, bringing the total number of days during the month of April 1989 to 11 when record high values had either been matched or broken. (The Weather Channel) (The National Weather Summary) (Intellicast)
• 21 April 1992...Two inches of snow fell at International Falls, MN, bringing the winter season snowfall to 106.7 inches and setting a new all-time record for the city. The old record was 104.7 inches set back in the 1988-89 winter season. (Intellicast) Editor's Note: The seasonal snowfall accumulation for the 2008-09 winter reached a record 125.6 inches. EJH
• 22 April 2003...Tropical Storm Ana formed in the southwestern North Atlantic Ocean, becoming the first Atlantic tropical storm (since records began in 1871) to form during the month April. Maximum sustained winds reached 50 mph. (The Weather Doctor)
• 23 April 1910...The temperature at the Civic Center in Los Angeles, CA hit 100 degrees to establish an April record for the city. (The Weather Channel)
• 23 April 1989...Salina, KS was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 105 degrees. The high of 105 degrees established an April record for the state of Kansas. A total of eighteen cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)
• 23 April 1996...One inch of snow on this day at Cleveland, OH brought its seasonal snowfall to 101.1 inches -- the city snowiest winter ever. The old record was 100.5 inches set in 1981-82. (Intellicast)
• 24 April 2003...The temperature at Juneau, AK soared to a maximum of 70 degrees, the earliest occurrence of a 70-degree reading for the period of record in Alaska's capital city. (The Weather Doctor)
• 25 April 1875...New York City received three inches of snow, the latest measurable snow of record for that location. (David Ludlum)
• 25 April 1898...The temperature at Volcano Springs, CA hit 118 degrees to establish an U.S. record for the month of April. (The Weather Channel)
• 27 April 1915...The temperature at Washington, DC hit 92 degrees, the highest ever in April. New York City hit 92 degrees as well. (Intellicast)
• 27 April 1931...The temperature at Pahala, located on the main island of Hawaii, soared to 100 degrees to establish a state high temperature record. (The Weather Channel)
• 27 April 1960...The highest temperature ever recorded in Thailand reached 112 degrees at Uttaradit, Thailand . (The Weather Doctor)
• 27 April 1988...Mount Washington, NH reported seven ft of snow in ten days, pushing their snowfall total for the month to 89.9 in., surpassing the previous record of 89.3 in. set in 1975. Records have been kept at the Observatory on the summit since December 1932. (The National Weather Summary) (Intellicast)
• 27 April 2003...The largest hail storm ever recorded at Key West, FL was reported between 4:10 and 4:20 PM, hailstones ranging in size from one-half inch up to one and three-quarter inches fell. It is the eleventh recorded hail event (since 1871) at Key West. (The Weather Doctor)

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Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@meteor.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2014, The American Meteorological Society.