WEEK TWELVE: 18-22 April 2016

Item of Interest:

• National Park Week -- The US Department of the Interior's National Park Service has designated this week (16-24 April 2015) as National Park Week. A fee waiver will cover entrance and commercial tour fees in many of the national parks and monuments administered by the Park Service, which will celebrate its 100th anniversary on 25 August 2016. [National Park Service Fee Free Days]
• Hurricane Webinar offered for Grades 4-6-- The Hurricanes: Science and Society (HSS) team at the University of Rhode Island in partnership with the NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) is offering a free 45-minute Hurricane Webinar 2016 for 4th through 6th grade classes on Tuesday morning, 17 May 2016. This webinar will be broadcast live when the NOAA Hurricane Awareness Tour stops in Galveston, TX. Registration for this webinar is required. [Hurricanes: Science and Society]
• Celebrate Earth Day --This Friday (22 April 2016) marks the 46th Earth Day, first proposed by the late Senator Gaylord Nelson of Wisconsin in 1970 as a teach-in to heighten awareness of the environment. The Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison has posted a website called "Gaylord Nelson and Earth Day: The Making of the Modern Environmental Movement" that highlights Senator Nelson and his idea became Earth Day. Several governmental websites provides links to various activities and resources planned for this week, including a website maintained by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). NASA also provides a list of live public events and online activities on 21 and 22 April designed to celebrate Earth Day, including a Earth Day #24Seven Social Media event.
  On this Earth Day, the US, China and nearly 120 other nations are expected to sign the historic "Paris Agreement," an agreement drafted last December that deals with mitigation of the emissions of greenhouse gases.
• Accessing and interpreting climate data -- If you would like to obtain a variety of climate data for your home town or state that are available from the National Weather Service, please read this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth. This Supplemental not only identifies some of the sites to find the data, but also provides you with a brief explanation of the terminology used to identify the climate data.

Ocean in the News:

• Eye on the tropics --- Tropical cyclone activity during the last week was limited to one cyclone that developed and continued through the week in the waters of the South Indian basin. A tropical storm formed at the start of the week approximately 400 miles southeast of Diego Garcia and intensified to become Cyclone Fantala as it traveled westward. By late in the week, Fantala had intensified to become a major category 4 cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as maximum sustained surface winds reached 155 mph. Weakening slightly as it continued westward, Fantala was located approximately 725 miles to the north-northwest of Port Louis, Mauritius late Sunday (local time). Forecasts indicate that this tropical cyclone will continue weakening as it tracks toward the west-northwest early this week. Satellite images and additional information on Cyclone Fantala are found on the NASA Hurricane Page.
• The 2015 hurricane season reviewed -- The 2015 hurricane season in the North Atlantic along with the eastern and central North Pacific is reviewed and compared to the more than 150 years of record keeping in the North Atlantic and the 40 years in the eastern North Pacific. [AMS DataStreme Atmosphere]
• Early hurricane season forecast -- Last week, the hurricane forecast team from Colorado State University headed by Dr. Phil Klotzbach released its April forecast of the 2016 North Atlantic hurricane season that officially begins on 1 June 2016. The team, which includes Professor William Gray, foresee that this upcoming hurricane season should have approximately average tropical cyclone activity. Although Hurricane Alex formed in January 2016, their initial April forecast envisions twelve named tropical cyclones following Hurricane Alex, along with five additional hurricanes. Of these hurricanes, the forecasters foresee two major hurricanes. A near-average probability is anticipated for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. The team bases their outlook on the continued weakening of the current El Niño event this late spring in the Northern Hemisphere, followed by a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions or possibly La Niña conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in early to mid September. They are also considering the relatively warm waters of the tropical Atlantic along with a quite cold far North Atlantic, which is indicative of a of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation.
  In mid-May, forecasters with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) also should provide their outlook for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. [The Tropical Meteorology Project]
• No large tsunamis generated by recent strong earthquakes -- Early Saturday morning (local time), a powerful magnitude-7.0 occurred in the Kumamoto region on the Japanese island of Kyushu following a magnitude-6.2 earthquake on Thursday. At least 25 deaths were reported due to the two days of earthquakes. The Japanese Meteorological Agency had issued a temporary advisory for a tsunami with a height of up to one meter in the East China Sea along the coast west of the epicenter, but this advisory was later lifted. [CNN]
  On Saturday night a magnitude-7.8 earthquake rocked the area of the eastern Pacific Ocean just off the central coast of Ecuador. A tsunami alert had been posted along the Ecuador coast, but was lifted when the threat of a tsunami passed. However, at least 238 people died because of the earthquake damage to several cities including Guayaquil. [CNN]
• El Niño Advisory continues and La Niña Watch is issued -- Forecasters with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) recently announced that they are continuing their El Niño Advisory for the current El Niño event due to the positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across most of the equatorial Pacific that signify warmer than average ocean waters. However, these SST anomalies have been decreasing in magnitude across the eastern equatorial Pacific. In addition, the forecasters are issuing a La Niña watch as they envision a 50 percent chance that a La Niña event would develop by during the second half of 2016 autumn, which would follow the anticipated transition from the El Niño event to ENSO-neutral conditions during late spring or early summer in the Northern Hemisphere. [NOAA Climate Prediction Center]
  An ENSO blog was written by a CPC researcher that details the thinking that went into the preparation of the recently released April El Niño forecast. Discussion is also made of the possible La Niña that could develop. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
• The Magnuson-Stevens Act signed 40 years ago leads to sustainable fisheries -- Last Wednesday represents the 40th anniversary of the Magnuson-Stevens Act, which represents the primary law that governs the nation's fisheries. A 3-minute video entitled "Journey to Sustainable Fisheries: 40 Years Under the Magnuson-Stevens Act" highlights the successes in expansion and management of fish stocks due to this landmark law. [NOAA Fisheries Features]
  The NOAA Administrator, Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, posted a blog providing historical background information into the creation of the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act 40 years ago last week, including the motivation by the bill's sponsors, Senators Ted Stevens of Alaska and Warren Magnuson of Washington. [NOAA News]
  The Deputy Assistant Administrator for Regulatory Programs for NOAA Fisheries, Sam Rauch, wrote a leadership message that describes "the governance of fish" across the nation during the 40 years that the Magnuson-Stevens Act has been in effect. [NOAA News]
• A day in the life of a NOAA Fisheries analyst -- A stock assessment scientist with NOAA Fisheries, Kiersten Curti, is featured in an article about how NOAA scientists help ensure the nation has ample quantities of fish to eat. [NOAA News]
• Greenland ice melt season has a record early start-- Scientists with the Danish Meteorological Institute recently reported that Greenland's massive ice sheet has begun its annual summer melt earlier than ever in recorded history as nearly 12 percent of Greenland's ice sheet, which is roughly the size of Alaska, experienced some melting last week. Previous earliest ice melt commencement dates have occurred in May. The scientists are concerned about this sign of early melting since the Greenland ice sheet represents the second-biggest potential ice-melt contributor to sea-level rise, following behind Antarctica's ice sheet. [CNN]
• Robotic vehicles used to map shallow water for nautical charts -- A 1-minute "Ocean Today" video shows how NOAA's National Ocean Service uses autonomous surface vehicles (ASV) to reach and survey those shallow water inlets and bays where hydrographic survey vessels are unable to reach. The data collected by these ASVs in waters that may be as shallow as one foot are then used to produce NOAA's nautical charts for use by mariners. [NOAA National Ocean Service News]
• Sea surface temperature patterns could help predict tornado outbreaks with long lead time -- A scientist with NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and colleagues at the University of Miami, NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center have found a high probability of tornado outbreaks occurring in distinct regions across the nation for each of four dominant spring patterns of sea surface temperature associated with El Niño and La Niña variations. [NOAA News]
• Accomplishments of NOAA Education in 2015 noted -- NOAA's Office of Education recently released its "Accomplishments Report for Fiscal Year 2015," which details a variety of preK-12 education achievements through the year. As required by the America COMPETES Act, this report identifies NOAA's Education strategic plan that identifies five goals: Science-Informed Society; Conservation and Stewardship; Safety and Preparedness; Future Workforce; and Organizational Excellence. [NOAA Education]
• An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA's National Weather Service, FAA and FEMA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAA/NWS Daily Briefing]
• Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Concept of the Week: Climate Feedback Processes

Earth's climate system includes many interacting variables. Some variables are external to the Earth-atmosphere system and some are internal. External variables include solar energy output and Earth-sun geometry (i.e., the Milankovitch cycles). Internal variables include properties of the Earth's surface (e.g., albedo, moisture), the concentration of key atmospheric components (e.g., greenhouse gases, sulfurous aerosols), and cloud cover and thickness.

An important consideration in understanding how Earth's climate system responds to some perturbation is feedback. Feedback is defined as a sequence of interactions among variables in a system that determines how the system responds to some initial perturbation in one or more of the variables. Variables in Earth's climate system may interact in such a way as to either amplify (positive feedback) or lessen (negative feedback) a change in climate. An example of positive feedback is the ice-albedo effect described in Chapter 12 of the DataStreme Ocean textbook. Less ice cover in the Arctic greatly reduces the albedo of the Arctic Ocean causing higher sea surface temperatures and accelerated melting of the multiyear pack ice.

Consider an example of negative feedback. Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide enhances the greenhouse effect causing global warming. Global warming in turn raises sea surface temperatures and increases the rate of evaporation. A more humid atmosphere means more persistent and thicker cloud cover but clouds have both a cooling and warming effect on the lower atmosphere. The relatively high albedo of cloud tops causes cooling whereas absorption and emission of infrared radiation by clouds causes warming by contributing to the greenhouse effect. Satellite measurements and numerical models indicate that cooling would dominate.

In general, negative feedback tends to dominate over positive feedback in Earth's climate system, limiting the magnitude of climate change. The great thermal inertia of the ocean is the principal reason for dampening the planetary temperature response.

Concept of the Week: Questions

1. Feedback in Earth's climate system that amplifies climate change is described as [(positive)(negative)] feedback.
2. In general, [(negative)(positive)] feedback tends to prevail in Earth's climate system.

Historical Events:

• 18 April 1906...An early morning magnitude 7.8 earthquake along with a subsequent fire devastated much of San Francisco, CA, resulting in one of the worst natural disasters to hit a major US city. As many as 6000 people may have died because of this disaster. The earthquake was along the San Andreas Fault, with an epicenter thought to have been near Mussel Rock along the coast at suburban Daly City.
• 18 April 1848...U.S. Navy expedition to explore the Dead Sea and the River Jordan, commanded by LT William F. Lynch, reached the Dead Sea. (Naval Historical Center)
• 19 April 1770...Captain James Cook discovered New South Wales, Australia. Cook originally named the land Point Hicks.
• 20 April 1534...Jacques Cartier, a French explorer, set sail from St. Malo, France with two ships to explore the North American coastline in an attempt to find a passage to China. In this first voyage, he explored the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
• 20 April 1952...The tankers Esso Suez and Esso Greensboro collided in thick fog off the coast of Morgan City, LA. Only five of the Greensboro's crew survived after the ship burst into flame. (David Ludlum)
• 21 April 1910...The U.S. Government took over sealing operation of Alaska's Pribilof Islands in the Bering Sea from private lessees. (USCG Historian's Office)
• 21 April 1906...Commander Robert Peary, USN, discovered that the supposed Arctic Continent did not exist. (Naval Historical Center)
• 22 April 1500...Portuguese navigator Pedro Álvares Cabral became the first known European to sight Brazil, claiming it for Portugal. (Wikipedia)
• 23 April 1924...A tube transmitter for radio fog-signal stations, developed to take the place of the spark transmitters in use, was placed in service on the Ambrose Channel Lightship and proved successful. (USCG Historian's Office)
• 24 April 1884...USS Thetis, Bear, and Alert sailed from New York to search for Greeley expedition lost in the Arctic. (Naval Historical Center)
• 24 April 1928...The fathometer was patented by Herbert Grove Dorsey (No. 1,667,540). The invention measured underwater depths by using a series of electrical sounds and light signals. (Today in Science History)

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Prepared by DS Ocean Central Staff and Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D.,
email hopkins@aos.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2016, The American Meteorological Society.